Good afternoon everyone! Most of the area is dry as of 2:45pm CST with some persisting snow showers impacting portions of southwestern SD, including the Rapid City area. However, it does remain quite cold in eastern ND into northern MN where temperatures are still below 0ºF. It likely won’t warm much more (other than a few degrees) in these areas with colder overnight lows expected into tonight again. We’ll also watch for snow coverage to steadily increase across the western Dakotas into this evening.
The arctic airmass will remain in place for most through the weekend with the eastern Dakotas into MN remaining well below 0ºF (likely approaching -20ºF and colder in northeastern MN) heading into Saturday morning. The winds won’t be particularly strong and will likely only gust to 15mph max in these areas. However, even the slightest breezes will promote wind chills falling between -25 to -35ºF, especially in MN. As a reminder these temperatures are very hazardous to cattle and people so definitely limit the time outdoors. Temperatures in northeastern ND into northern MN likely stay below 0ºF for highs into Saturday while dropping back into the -10s and -20s for lows Sunday morning in eastern ND into MN. Winds should be rather variable in these areas Sunday morning, but as previously mentioned the slightest breezes will drop wind chills between -25 to -45ºF (the coldest wind chills most likely in northern MN).
Simulated radar through 12am CST Sunday: Increasing snow shower coverage will build as we work through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening across the western Dakotas, bringing light snow accumulations. Watch for a piece of this convection to work across the eastern Dakotas overnight before progressing into southwestern MN by 6am CST Saturday. This wave will be weakening as it progresses across southern MN Saturday morning and should lead to only minor accumulations. A few patches of flurries snow showers will remain in southeastern MN Saturday afternoon and evening before dissipating and/or working east. Further west, anticipate additional energy to promote the continuation of snow showers in the western Dakotas that pushes eastward with time into the central Dakotas late Saturday afternoon and evening. Scattered areas of flurries snow showers will still be possible in the western Dakotas.
Here’s a look at potential snowfall accumulation by Saturday night: Still favoring western ND into central SD for a general 1-3″ of snow. Further east, forcing will be more limited with snow coverage generally remaining more scattered, so accumulations should remain less than 1″.
The main wave of concern will come in the form of a potent clipper system that will dig southeastward into the area come early Sunday, resulting in a band of snow along its eastern periphery in the eastern Dakotas into western MN. This system will have the potential for decent snow accumulations (potential for an area of 6″+) as temperatures where the snow falls will be far below freezing and lead to high-ratio snows. However, changes will still be possible regarding location, timing and intensity.
This wave enters northwestern ND early Sunday morning and works south and eastward through the remainder of the morning across the eastern Dakotas. Snow coverage will be approaching the western MN border with the Dakotas just before the noon hour Sunday and adds snows into western and southern MN through the afternoon and evening hours. By 6pm CST Sunday, a band of moderate to heavy snow will likely be situated across the eastern Dakotas into western/southern MN with more scattered mixed coverage further west across the western Dakotas. Progressing through Sunday night, the system will be working southeastward and start to pull the heavier snows out of the Dakotas while banding continues in the southern two-thirds of MN. Working into Monday morning, lighter snow showers will remain scattered in coverage across the Dakotas while the steadier snows in southeastern MN will be starting to lift out. Pockets of snow showers/flurries will remain through the remainder of Monday across the area but the best chances for these remaining will be situated in western SD.
Taking a look at winds through Monday morning reveals the gustiest winds through Saturday night will be situated in the western Dakotas where gusts of 25-35mph will be common. Watch for blowing snow in these areas along with reduced visibilities. As the stronger system dives southeastward into the area come Sunday, winds will pick up dramatically east of the aforementioned areas. Near blizzard conditions will be possible at times Sunday afternoon into Monday morning across the eastern Dakotas into western/southern MN as gusts to 30-35mph are likely at times. Enhanced wind gusts of 45-50mph are expected Sunday afternoon through Monday morning in the western Dakotas (where a few High Wind Watches have been issued).
Here’s the latest map regarding snowfall threat with the Sunday into Monday morning system. Areas under a high risk have the greatest potential for 6″+ of snow with localized 12″ not out of the question in southern MN. A sharp temperature gradient will setup northwest to southeast across the Dakotas, resulting in snow totals decreasing as you head west and south across these states. Also, northeastern MN remains too far northeast of the track to have much in the way of heavy impacts. Also highlighted in the yellow-dashed line are the areas that can observe blizzard-like conditions Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
As mentioned in previous updates, temperatures will drop considerably behind this system as a lobe of the Polar Vortex displaces towards the Great Lakes region. This will allow for dangerously cold wind chills to develop mid-late next week (especially in the light blue color) with the latest data still hinting at wind chills dropping to -45 to -55ºF. Now is definitely the time to take extra precautions as this upcoming cold looks to be worse than the cold we’re experiencing now and likely the worst cold we’ve seen in several years.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!