Good afternoon everyone! It remains fairly quiet across the area with minimal flurry activity present. However, as discussed from this morning, this will be short-lived as we watch multiple pieces of energy dive into the region through Saturday and provide at least minor snow accumulations for many in the region. We’re also eyeing a bigger system come Sunday. Regarding temperatures, our arctic airmass remains in place with many in the central and northern portions of the region below 0ºF even as of 3:25pm CST. Wind chills aren’t any better as blustery winds across the area (that is helping to blow and drift snow in MN) are leading to wind chill readings well into the -20s in ND, eastern SD and the vast majority of MN. There are pockets east of Grand Forks and Fargo that have wind chills approaching -35ºF even at this time.
Improvement is not expected temperature-wise as what we are observing now are likely the high temperatures for the day. Heading into tonight, we’ll remain below 0ºF in the eastern Dakotas into MN (likely approaching -20ºF in many locations in northeastern ND and northern MN). The winds will start to die down in the coldest areas tonight, but even the slightest breezes will promote wind chills falling into the -20s and -30s. These temperatures are very hazardous to cattle so definitely be making sure to check up on the livestock and implementing any plans at this point in time. Temperatures in the aforementioned areas stay below 0ºF for highs into Friday while dropping back into the -10s for lows Saturday morning in the eastern Dakotas into MN. There will be a slight improvement in wind chills Saturday morning, but still expect widespread -20s (for wind chills) in the same areas.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Sunday: Energy will start to kick into the western Dakotas by 12am CST tonight and provide areas of light snows in these areas, with a piece quickly working eastward across central/eastern SD overnight. By 6am CST Friday, this stray piece of energy with accompanying snows will be progressing across the southern third of MN before exiting shortly after lunchtime. Further west, snow showers will persist in southwestern ND into western SD through the day Friday with elsewhere dry during the afternoon. Friday evening/early night, additional upper-level energy will spawn more snow showers in the western Dakotas that gradually pushes across the remainder of the Dakotas through the remainder of the night. Snow showers will continue Saturday morning in the western Dakotas with the Friday night wave working through southern MN. The snows in the western Dakotas Saturday morning are associated with a stronger wave that will lift eastward with time during the remainder of the day. A sharp temperature gradient will likely setup across the western Dakotas that should allow some of the precipitation in western SD to transition to rain or at least a wintry mix. This wave will start to weaken Saturday Evening and night as it impacts the Dakotas.
Here’s a look at snowfall potential through Friday evening: Snowfall accumulations are expected to remain rather light through this timespan as the snows remain lighter and scattered in coverage. In general, pockets of 0.5-1″ of snow is expected in SD, southern/western ND and southern MN. A few localized locations may pick up close to 2″ of snow.
Here’s a look at the better snowfall potential coming Saturday: This stronger clipper will provide a corridor for 1″ to as much as 4″ of snow stretching from northwestern ND southeastward through eastern SD and southwestern MN. However, the higher amounts of this spectrum are more likely in western ND given greater forcing. Most in eastern ND into northern MN will receive little to no snow from this system.
As previously discussed, the main wave of concern in the form of a potent clipper system will dig southeastward into the area come Sunday, resulting in a band of snow along its eastern periphery in the eastern Dakotas into western MN. This system will have the best potential for decent snow accumulations (potential for an area of 6″+) as temperatures where the snow falls will be far below freezing and lead to high-ratio snows. However, do note that this system is still a good ways out and changes will be possible in timing, location and strength so definitely check back often for future updates.
This wave enters western ND Sunday morning and works south and eastward through the remainder of the morning across the eastern Dakotas. Western MN will work in snows starting around 2pm CST and add snow coverage into the evening while snows continue in the eastern Dakotas. A band of at least moderate snows will shift through western/southern MN and the eastern Dakotas Sunday night before the system exits most of the Dakotas Monday morning and shortly-thereafter in southern MN. A few patches of light snow showers/flurries will remain across the area even after this time as sharply colder air will follow.
As just mentioned, temperatures will drop considerably behind this system as a lobe of the Polar Vortex displaces towards the Great Lakes region. This will allow for dangerously cold wind chills to develop mid-late next week (especially in the light blue color) with the latest data suggesting wind chills of -45 to -55ºF possible. Now is definitely the time to take extra precautions as this upcoming cold looks to be worse than the cold we’re observing now.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!