Good afternoon everyone! A lighter band of snows continues to work across portions of eastern ND into northern/eastern MN (as of 2:35pm CST) that is providing light snow accumulations to these areas this afternoon. However, this band will persist through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours as it progresses northeast through northern MN while snow coverage expands further west by evening over a large portion of the Dakotas.
The storm system that will provide snows to a large portion of the area later this evening through the nighttime hours will be lifting into the Central Plains. Frontogenesis (aids in lift and the development of snow) will be lacking for most of the Northern Plains through this duration, so the snows will likely remain on the light to moderate side. This will exclude northern MN as the snow band working into these areas now will persist and likely expand into tonight, helping to lead to an area of 5-8″ of snow; More on snowfall amounts discussed later! An area of heavier snow we are targeting will come late in the day Tuesday into Tuesday night in southeastern MO (south and east of Minneapolis) as the strengthening low pressure system that works eastward across the Central Plains strengthens and increases banding and lift on its northwestern periphery. Southeastern MN is another area to watch for significant snow amounts given the stout frontogenesis signal (also within the DGZ which enhances snowflake development).
Here’s a look at the current winter weather bulletins across the Northern Plains: Areas under Winter Weather Advisories (Northern/far southern MN and portions of southern SD) have the higher risk for at least a couple inches of snow. However, we believe the better chance for 5-8″ of snow still exists in portions of northern MN and then southeastern MN (where the Winter Storm Watches remain).
Simulated radar through 9am CST Wednesday: Note the next wave of snow develops in the western Dakotas through the next few hours and then expands eastward with time this evening into southern/southeastern ND and northern MN (increasing coverage with the snow already lifting through northern MN). Through the overnight hours, expect the snow coverage to lift eastward across the remainder of SD and into southern MN. By 6am CST Tuesday, snow coverage and intensity will have mostly diminished in the western Dakotas with only a few patches of very light snow/flurries remaining. However, it will continue further east at this time across all of MN while being lighter in nature in the far eastern Dakotas. As we progress through Tuesday morning, the expansive light to moderate snows in northern MN will clear eastward. We’ll watch the low pressure system in the Central Plains propagate northeastward and strengthen, resulting in snows lingering in southeastern MN Tuesday morning and likely increasing in snowfall rates Tuesday afternoon and evening. Backside snows linger in far southeastern MN Tuesday night before exiting as the system clears east early Wednesday morning.
Here’s a look at total snow accumulation by Wednesday morning: Continuing to target northern/far southeastern MN and far east-central ND for the best chances to observe 5-8″ of snow. Lighter amounts will be more prevalent in central MN and then further west into the remainder of ND and SD. Even with the latest runs of new model guidance, there are discrepancies in southwestern MN and southeastern SD (especially for Sioux Falls). We are still favoring the European’s approach to a more easterly solution, but can’t rule out higher amounts in these aforementioned areas given some guidance being more pronounced with backside banding. It is important to note that the latest European Model brings less than 1″ to Sioux Falls while other models such as the GFS bring 6″+. This just goes to show the uncertainty in the snowfall forecast in this area. Because of these differences, we decided to take a blend of the data (though remaining on the lower end), but note that actual amounts could be higher. One thing if for certain in relation to all guidance, there will be a decent snow hole (less than 1″ total) setting up for some locations in eastern SD. However, placement in this snow hole is not certain, though is currently being more favored near the Pierre, SD area.
Winds won’t be too terribly gusty during the duration of this event, but will note at times winds gusting to 25mph (especially in SD and southern MN). This could lead to localized pockets of lower visibility in the heavier bands of snow along with patchy blowing snow. Something to note if you will be traveling during this period as you should expect many roads to be snow covered and slick.
With the region remaining well within the cooler sector of this storm, expect temperatures for most areas to remain in the teens and lower 20s during this snow event. Snow ratios will be quite high given the lower temperatures, resulting in a fluffier/powdery snow. Also with these temperatures there isn’t much concern for any mixing issues that could lower snowfall amounts as essentially all snow should be anticipated. Temperatures will drop again Tuesday night due to fresh snow cover and another dose of arctic air funneling into the region. Most in the eastern Dakotas into MN will fall into the single digits Tuesday night into Wednesday morning while areas in northern MN will likely find themselves back into the negatives.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!