Good morning everyone! We are watching the ending stages of the clipper system that tracked through the region late yesterday through this morning with scattered light snow showers starting to exit southwestern MN to the southeast as of 9:55am CST. Further northwest into northeastern SD and central ND, isolated patches of flurries and snow showers remain, which will likely remain the story through the course of the day. Regarding temperatures (second image), many in northeastern ND into the northern half of MN remain well into the -10s and -20s this morning with some locations in northeastern MN colder than -30ºF.
The next system that will impact the region will start to increase low-level moisture across the western portions of the region, in particular within the circled region below where areas of patchy freezing drizzle/fog will likely develop tonight into Monday morning that could lead to slick spots.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Monday: Scattered light snow showers in southwestern MN will gradually come to an end over the next few hours while light flurries will remain possible through the day across eastern SD into central ND, but likely won’t lead to any additional accumulations. The first wave of our next system will initiate a band of light snow starting in portions of western SD early this evening and spread into central SD and southwestern ND overnight. By 6am CST Monday morning, a narrow band of light snow will span from western ND through southeastern ND and far northeastern SD. Light snows will spread through most of ND Monday morning as well as west-central MN. To the south in portions of SD, limited lift and saturation within the snow growth zone will promote the risk for freezing drizzle or at least flurries.
Total snow accumulation through Monday morning: There is a decent amount of model disagreement regarding snowfall amounts and placement tonight into Monday morning in ND with some guidance suggesting only up to an inch of snow in these areas. However, we can’t rule out the solution below (more aggressive) with 1-3″ of snow spanning across most of ND with amounts generally around 0.5-1″ in northern SD and west-central MN. Again, this is a low confidence forecast but wanted to highlight the potential.
The main wave of our system will work into the western Dakotas starting late afternoon/early Monday evening with the thin wave of light snow still progressing across northern MN. Heading into Monday night, snows will expand in coverage across SD, the southeastern half of ND and northern MN. These snows will track eastward through the day Tuesday, resulting in the bulk of the snow out of ND around noontime Tuesday afternoon and eventually SD Tuesday evening. With the low pressure system well south of the area and turning east, backside snows will remain in the southern third of MN Tuesday night before this activity shifts east as well late Wednesday morning. Even after these end times, additional flurries will be possible across the area as the cold air aloft squeezes out any residual moisture in the atmosphere.
Here’s an accumulating snowfall risk map from late Monday through Wednesday morning: The best chances for accumulations of 6″ and possibly more will be within two areas (northern MN and locations south of Minneapolis in southern MN). There is more model agreement for the band of snow in northern MN than southern MN, but there is still the risk in southern MN given how much cold air can wrap behind the low pressure system Tuesday night before it exits east. Current projections show a general 1-4″ of snow within the medium risk area, but modifications to this area will be possible with Monday morning’s update.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days reveals a general 0.2-0.5″ of liquid for most areas during this timespan. Localized pockets of 0.5″+ will be possible, especially just north of the Blackhills and in far southern MN pending the development of backside snow Tuesday night. After the storm system exits mid-week, we are not eyeing any major storm systems, but rather clipper systems with light snows as the development of an eastern US trough will help to shunt precipitation/storm risks south of the region.
Temperatures over the next four days: Not much in the way of improvement is expected today in the eastern Dakotas into northern/western MN as some may still not warm above the 0ºF mark. Overnight tonight into Monday morning, look for temperatures to stay below 0ºF for many in the eastern Dakotas into MN with negative teens likely again in far northern MN. Take a look at the third image below which represents wind chills heading into Monday morning. Wind chills well into the -10s will be likely in the eastern Dakotas into MN with -20s probable in far eastern ND and the northern half of MN. We can’t rule out some areas in far northern MN approaching wind chill values near -30ºF.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days for Fargo, Bismarck, Minneapolis and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!