Good morning everyone! A weak clipper system is currently making its way through the central portions of IA this morning (as of 8:15am CST) with light snows. Elsewhere remains dry, however, there are a few scattered snow showers/flurries associated with the clipper working through the eastern third of NE as well. Progressing through the day, expect this precipitation to quickly work southeastward as the clipper system glides through the eastern portions of the area.
Simulated radar through 10pm CST this evening: Light snows work through the central portions of IA this morning and early afternoon while scattered snow showers/flurries clip the eastern portions of NE. This system is also battling dry air, so precipitation that is observed on radar may not necessarily be reaching the ground as it will take some time to saturate the drier surface layer. During the afternoon hours, light snows will spread into the northeastern portions of MO while also exiting southeastern IA. As the snows progress through eastern MO they will slowly lose coverage as the system continues to work through dry air, gradually fading over southeastern MO this evening (shortly after 10pm CST).
Here’s a look at snowfall with this weak clipper: In general, we are looking at a corridor stretching from central IA into eastern MO for 0.5-1″ of snow. However, there will be areas that can receive upwards of 1.5″, in particular near the Des Moines, IA vicinity.
An area to watch for low-level saturation and the development of patchy freezing drizzle/fog tonight into Monday morning will be in western KS/NE out ahead of an incoming storm system. Winds won’t be very favorable for fog, which leads us to believe it is more of a freezing drizzle threat, but can’t rule out pockets of fog as well. Any areas impacted by patchy freezing drizzle tonight into Monday morning will have to contend with a very light glaze of ice that will lead to slick spots.
The next storm system will likely initiate a narrow band of snow that works eastward across the Northern Plains, largely missing most of the area. However, the southern periphery of this band late tonight into Monday Morning could clip far northeastern NE and northern IA. While not shown, the freezing drizzle/flurry risk will increase across a large portion of central/eastern NE and northern KS Monday ahead of the storm system that will enter the NE Panhandle Monday evening, spreading snows eastward across NE, northwestern KS and northwestern IA overnight into Tuesday morning. Warmer air to the south will promote rain risks in eastern KS, southern IA and northwestern MO Tuesday morning. This storm system will continue to work eastward through the remainder of Tuesday, spreading snows across northern IA with backside snows likely in eastern NE and northern KS. Precipitation clears west to east Tuesday night with only snows remaining in eastern IA by Wednesday morning.
Here’s an initial risk map regarding snowfall potential with this storm system from late Monday through Wednesday morning. Models are in decent agreement that the northern portions of IA and potentially northeastern NE are at play for 6″ or more of snow before all is set and done with lighter amounts further west and especially south. At this point in time, it appears snow accumulations are likely in the northern half of the region. Be sure to check back tomorrow for our latest thinking with snow amounts regarding this system. One thing is for certain, winds will pick up as this system tracks through the area, so lower visibilities along with blowing snow will be possible in the northern half of the region.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days reveals amounts ranging from 0.25-0.75″ will be likely over NE, IA and MO while central and southwestern KS can remain on the drier side. Southeastern MO also has the potential to observe 1″ or more of liquid during this time.
High temperatures over the next four days: Very way in the little of recovery is anticipated over the northeastern portions of the region today as a cold arctic high works through the area. Temperatures likely won’t warm past the single digits for many in IA. Daytime highs will start to recovery somewhat Monday and especially Tuesday out ahead of the storm system progressing through the area.
Low temperatures over the next four days: With the recent snow and cold Canadian air working through the northeaster portions of the region, expect Monday morning lows to bottom out back into the negatives for much of IA. The second image below is forecasted wind chills from the European Model, with wind chill temperatures falling well into the negatives across eastern NE, northern MO and all of IA. Wind chills approaching -20ºF will be common in IA Monday morning.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Lighter wind expected area-wide before winds increase out ahead of an approaching storm system Monday.
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!