Good morning everyone! With the cold air in place this morning and temperatures falling well below zero, Wind Chill Advisories were issued for locations such as northeastern ND, northern/western MN and southeastern SD. Temperatures along with wind chills will continue to rise through the remainder of the morning and early afternoon, putting an end to these advisories. However, with additional bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills into tonight, we wouldn’t be surprised to see these re-issued again (and for similar areas).
Behind the storm system that brought snows to a good portion of the region yesterday, temperatures have plummeted as colder air along the western periphery of an upper-level trough filters downward through the region. Waking up again Sunday morning, we’ll look at temperatures to fall below zero from the eastern Dakotas into MN with -10s and perhaps -20s showing up in far northeastern ND into northern MN. Wind chills falling well into the -20s will be expected in these areas with -30s and -40s possible in far northern/northeastern MN tonight into Sunday morning. Daytime recovery Sunday will be minimal as many in northern MN and northeastern ND likely won’t make it out of the negatives. Monday morning will be a tad warmer, but that statement is relative as negatives will still be common in the eastern Dakotas into MN. Wind chills will still range between -15ºF to -25ºF during this time.
As we work into this evening, we’ll observe a clipper system drop southeastward into the region, gaining coverage and spreading snows in this direction tonight. Areas impacted by this clipper look to remain within a corridor stretching from northwestern ND into northeastern SD and southwestern MN. Temperatures will remain well below freezing as previously stated in these areas, so higher snow rations will be likely, leading to drier, powdery snows. Shown below is a simulated radar which runs from 4pm CST this afternoon through 6pm CST Sunday: The timing has delayed somewhat since yesterday’s update, with the snows not really getting their act together in northwestern ND until 6pm CST. Progressing through the remainder of the evening and overnight hours, snow coverage will expand southeastward into central ND and northeastern SD. During the early morning hours Sunday, light snows will work into portions of southwestern MN. However, as Sunday morning progresses, snow intensity and coverage will wane with most snow dissipated by 3pm CST (though a few lighter snow showers/flurries may remain in north-central ND).
Here’s a look at total snowfall with this clipper system from this evening through Sunday morning: A swath of snow ranging from 1-4″ will be likely stretching through the circled region below with amounts decreasing as you head further southeast. This will be a rather narrow corridor, so to the northeast and southwest, amounts will drop off considerably. The best chances to observe the higher amount from the snow range (4″) will be along the western ND/Canadian border.
A more potent storm system will once again be right on the horizon, starting with the weaker aspect of the system with a thin, light band of snow propagating across the area Sunday night through the day Monday. This will be followed by the core of the system which arrives Monday evening in western SD and gradually works eastward and expanding snow coverage across the remainder of SD, southeastern ND and a majority of MN Monday night through the day Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, the bulk of the snow will have shifted into the southeastern portions of the region, though flurries can still hang back elsewhere across the region.
Winds will also be a dilemma with this system, gusting to 30mph at times on Monday and then again on Tuesday (especially SD and southern MN). Any snow on the ground as well as additional snow that falls during this timespan will likely create lower visibilities and blowing/drifting snow.
Here’s a look at the latest guidance showing snowfall from now through the day Wednesday, which includes the clipper system that will dive southeastward late today through Sunday morning. Agreement on the placement of the higher totals are left to be desired, but we can definitely note the potential for some locations to pick up 6″+ of snow while others receive 3″ or less. Currently the best indications for the higher totals look to be draped across northern MN and then southeastern MN with a deepening storm system Tuesday into Tuesday night. Please note that the GFS Ensemble mean is an average of all the 52 members from that model run, which will usually always run lower than what occurs. Also the ensembles use 10:1 snow to liquid ratios and during this event the ratios will be likely higher, resulting in higher totals.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!