Good evening everyone! The winter storm we have been tracking is starting to get its act together across portions of the area, in particular central and eastern IA where snows are increasing in coverage as of 5pm CST. Snows can also be found in the northern couple of county rows in MO with light rains in portions of northeastern KS starting to also transition to snow as we speak. Areas such as Emporia and Wichita, KS still have periods of rain to contend with before the gradual transition to snow occurs later this evening and early night. Further west, Garden City is another location observing periods of snow.
Here’s an updated look at the winter weather bulletins issued across the area, including Winter Weather Advisories for a large portion of NE, the northeastern half of KS and the southern two thirds of MO. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the eastern two-thirds of IA, the northern third of MO and far northeastern KS.
Simulated radar through 6am CST Saturday: Periods of moderate to perhaps heavy snow at times will continue across most of IA through the evening hours while colder air funneling southward for locations west will allow the gradual transition from rain to snow to occur stretching from northeastern to southwestern KS. Snows will also become heavier in the northern two rows of counties in MO as well during this timeframe. During the overnight hours, the snows will expand eastward with western IA, far southeastern NE and the vast majority of KS clearing the bulk of the precipitation by the end of this loop (6am CST Saturday). By this time, the rain snow line will have shifted towards central MO (near the Columbia, MO vicinity) with rains south and snows just north.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Saturday through 12am CST Sunday: A hefty deformation band will likely setup southwest to northeast across the heart of MO Saturday morning before shifting eastward with the system during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. Models continue to be iffy on the exact placement of this heavier band of snow, but regardless given some frontogenesis and the deepening of the storm system, we can’t rule out this band over-performing. Once 6pm CST Saturday rolls around, this band will be located over southeastern MO and slowly inching away as the evening progresses. By late evening into early night, any convection will have lifted east of the area with notably drier/colder weather across the vast majority of the Central Plains.
Winds will continue to pick up with this system as it works eastward tonight and especially into the day Saturday. Expect gusts to approach 25-30mph at times in NE and IA while stronger gusts towards 35-40mph will be possible in KS and MO. Winds like this will promote lower visibilities during times of snow along with blowing and drifting snow.
Here’s out latest thoughts on additional snowfall through the event: We are eyeing the eastern half of IA and the far northern portions of MO to receive the heaviest snow accumulations (5-8″) from here on out. Snowfall totals will quickly drop off westward across western IA while most of NE will receive little to no additional snow (excluding far southeastern NE). With the deformation band developing over central and then southeastern MO tomorrow, we can’t rule out heavier amounts than what is shown below, but due to discrepancies in placement and magnitude of this band, we have opted out of going higher with the totals.
Take a look at the low temperatures come Sunday morning: Many in IA and the northern third of MO are expected to fall into the negatives with wind chill readings likely to dip even further.
Overall, most of the region will be dry Sunday with arctic high pressure settling in across the area. However, a clipper system from the Northern Plains will quickly glide southeastward across the northeastern half of IA starting Sunday morning before fading/exiting by 6pm CST Sunday. This wave will be battling dry air initially due to the substantially drier/colder air in place across this portion of the region, so in general we are looking at lighter snows with this system at this time.
Here’s a look at the potential snowfall with this weak clipper system as it glides through the northeastern half of IA Sunday: Snowfall accumulations are looking to be light at this time, though will be quite powdery with colder temperatures in the single digits likely. We are looking at around 1″ of snow accumulation within a narrow corridor with this event, but we can’t rule out isolated pockets approaching 2″.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!