Good morning everyone! The storm system plaguing a large portion of the central plains continues to bring widespread snow coverage to southern IA and the northern two-thirds of MO while lighter back-side snows are more prevalent in southeastern NE into KS (as of 9:25am CST). A mix of rain and snow also remains in far southeastern KS into southern MO due to warmer temperatures that have remained in these areas. We’ll note the progression of snows eastward today as the storm system continues to slowly work across the eastern plains through the OHV.
Simulated radar through 6pm CST this evening: Banding features are expected to continue, especially in central and northeastern MO, due to enhanced frontogenesis and the strengthening of the mid-level low. This will help to bring at least an additional few inches of snow. Snows will gradually lift out of western KS this morning, but we’ll still observe snow coverage in eastern KS, far southeastern NE, the southern two-thirds of IA and the northern half of MO through the afternoon hours.
By the end of the loop above (6pm CST), the vast majority of the energy will have worked further east encompassing the eastern third of KS, far southeastern NE, southern IA and all of MO. These are the areas we believe will still be observing precipitation by this time, mostly in the form of snow. However, as mentioned in the graphic, a warmer nose of air will be positioned in southeastern MO, keeping most of the precipitation rain in those areas.
Simulated radar from 6pm CST this evening through 12am CST Monday: Snows continue to gradually wind down west to east across eastern KS, southeastern NE and southern IA with these areas clearing the bulk of the precipitation by 6am CST Sunday (likely sooner in southeastern NE and southern IA). During the daytime hours Sunday, some lingering, elongated upper-level energy across the OHV into MO will help to promote the risk for lingering pulses of light snow and flurries, especially in eastern MO, but won’t be nearly the same coverage we observe today. By midnight Sunday night, the vast majority of the region will be dry with the exception being lingering flurries in portions of southeastern MO.
Given the elongated/broad nature of the mid-level low, winds won’t be particular strong with this system compared to previous winter storms. However, we’ll still observe wind gusts during the today in KS, southeastern NE and northwestern MO gust towards 25mph. These winds will eventually work into southern IA and the rest of MO overnight. Blowing snow will be a minimal risk (though not zero) because of the wet snow, but could lead to isolated power outages.
Additional snow accumulation into tonight: Overall, a sprawled out area of additional snow accumulation is expected from eastern KS through southeastern NE into the southern two-thirds of IA and the northern two-thirds of MO. We’re still looking at an additional 3-6″ of snow within the circled region below (greater frontogenesis in this area) with accumulations generally 3″ or less elsewhere that is observing snow. Pockets of additional 1-3″ of snow is expected in eastern KS. Take a look at the snow gradient setting up in southern MO due to rain mixing in. Northern/western NE and portions of northern IA will receive little to no snow.
Total precipitation over the next 7 days reveals 0.5-1″ of liquid in MO from the storm system working through the area now with lighter amounts elsewhere (model is taking into account precipitation that fell overnight in KS and southeastern NE). After this system, our attention will then turn towards a late week/early next weekend disturbance that once again could bring another round of accumulating snow to portions of the region.
High/low temperatures over the next four days: Temperatures during a majority of the event will hover generally between 30-32ºF for the areas that observe snow which is expected to lead to wet snow accumulations. Snow covered roads will be possible and especially true in the northern half of MO. After the storm system passes to the east of the region Sunday night into Monday, temperatures will fall with many areas likely falling into the teens (under-modeled below).
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will be light after this system passes Sunday through Tuesday.
High/low temperatures over the next 15 days for Des Moines, Lincoln, Salina and Columbia:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!