Good evening everyone! This post updates information for IA, NE and KS while providing similar information already sent to MO previously this afternoon. Our storm system is really starting to get its act together across the southern portions of the region, with heavy snows being reported in eastern MO where a few inches of snow has already been reported in a couple spots. A mix of rain and snow is also occurring in northeastern NE with snows becoming the more dominant precipitation type in the western third of KS. Further south, warmer air intrusion is keeping the bulk of the precipitation as rain at this time (5:05pm CST) in southern/southeastern KS and southwestern MO. Snows are also spreading into portions of southern NE and far southern IA. We’ll note as we progress through the evening into tonight, that additional areas will finally transition to a wet snow.
Our significant winter storm will continue to take aim on the region tonight into Saturday with Winter Weather Advisories spanning a good majority of KS, southeastern NE, southern IA and portions of western MO while Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for central and eastern MO.
Simulated radar through 12pm CST Saturday: Snows will expand in coverage through the evening and early overnight hours in KS and the northern two-thirds of MO while the northern periphery of the swath of snow inches northward into southeastern NE and the southern half of IA. Widespread snow coverage is expected in these areas overnight. Given the track of the system and some warmer air working in south, rains will remain likely in far southeastern KS into the southern third of MO. Some locations in southeastern MO will have to contend with freezing rain at times through the overnight that could lead to a couple tenths of ice accretion. Banding features are expected to develop due to enhanced frontogenesis and the strengthening of the mid-level low, especially along the Kansas City to Columbia to St. Louis line that will lead to hefty snow accumulations. Snows will gradually lift out of western KS Saturday morning, but we’ll still observe widespread snow coverage in eastern KS, far southeastern NE, the southern half of IA and the northern half of MO by the noon hour Saturday.
Simulated radar from 12pm CST Saturday through 12pm CST Sunday: Snows gradually wind down west to east across eastern KS, southeastern NE and southern IA with these areas clearing the bulk of the precipitation by 6am CST Sunday (likely sooner in southeastern NE and southern IA). During the daytime hours Sunday, some lingering, elongated upper-level energy across the OHV into MO will help to promote the risk for lingering flurries/sct’d snow showers, but won’t be nearly the same coverage we observe tonight and Saturday. By the noon hour Sunday, the vast majority of the region will be dry with the exception being the snow flurries remaining in portions of eastern MO.
Temperatures during a majority of the event will hover generally between 30-32ºF for the areas that observe snow which is expected to lead to wet snow accumulations. KS remains a more difficult aspect of this forecast as temperatures in these areas (even ones experiencing snow) could remain at or just slightly above freezing. However, given the steady nature of the snow, several inches of snow is expected in portions of the state that will lead to hazardous travel conditions. Snow covered roads will be possible and especially true in the northern half of MO. After the storm system passes to the east of the region Sunday night into Monday, temperatures will fall with many areas likely falling into the teens (under-modeled below).
Given the elongated/broad nature of the mid-level low, winds won’t be particular strong with this system compared to previous winter storms. However, we’ll still observe wind gusts during the day Saturday in KS and southeastern NE gust 25-30mph. These winds will eventually work into southern IA and the state of MO Saturday night. Blowing snow will be a minimal risk (though not zero) because of the wet snow, but could lead to isolated power outages.
Here’s an updated snowfall graphic through Saturday night: Overall, a sprawled out area of snow accumulation is expected from western KS through northeastern KS/southeastern NE into the southern half of IA and the northern two-thirds of MO. A bullseye for 8-12″+ is located in portions of northern MO, including Columbia, Quincy and St. Louis. A swath of 5-8″ extends into the southern-fourth of IA, northwestern MO and far northeastern KS while rain mixing in further south across southeastern KS and the southern portions of MO will hinder snow accumulations. Take a look at the snow gradient setting up in southern MO due to rain mixing in. Northern/western NE and northern IA will receive little to no snow. Some model guidance remains more aggressive along a corridor stretching from Topeka to Salina, KS where locally higher amounts near 8″ of snow will be possible. However, given the lower confidence and how narrow the corridor is, we have opted with keeping locally higher amounts possible in northern KS. The greatest potential for higher amounts include Topeka and Salina.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!