Good afternoon everyone! The very beginnings of our significant storm system will start to work into the southern portions of KS/MO tonight, though will likely start out as rain shower activity given the warmer temperatures near 40ºF. Shown below is the energy associated with this system as it progresses northeastward into additional portions of KS and southwestern MO late tonight into Friday morning. As we progress through the day Friday, a majority of the rain activity will transition to snows due to dynamic cooling. However, temperatures will still remain just above freezing. Friday night through Saturday night, this energy and broadened low pressure system will work more in an eastward fashion as high pressure from the north bears down on the system.
Simulated radar from 12am CST tonight through 6am CST Saturday: Scattered precipitation in the form of rain will break out in southeastern KS and southwestern MO initially, with more rain activity filtering into most of KS and western MO associated with the upper-level energy Friday morning. By the noon hour, rains will be in the beginning stages of changing over to snow due to dynamic cooling in southeastern MO stretching possibly towards northwestern MO and northeastern KS. Through the afternoon and evening hours, snows will expand in coverage in western/northeastern KS and most of MO. By late afternoon/early evening, these snows will also develop further north, likely spreading into southern NE and far southern IA. Widespread snow coverage is expected in KS, MO, southeastern NE and southern IA through the overnight hours Friday into Saturday. Given the track of the system, enough warm air is likely to mix in across portions of southeastern KS and the southern third of MO where rain mixing in will be likely.
Simulated radar from 6am CST Saturday through 12am CST Monday: Snows continue throughout much of the day Saturday before it starts to wind down in NE and KS Saturday afternoon/evening and in the southern half of IA Saturday night with a risk of lingering snow showers/flurries in MO Sunday. The upper-level energy come Sunday will be quite elongated across the OHV into MO, which will help to promote areas of snow showers lingering in those areas during the day Sunday. However, it is not expected to be anywhere near the coverage we will see Saturday.
Temperatures during a majority of the event will hover around freezing for the areas that observe snow which is expected to lead to wet snow accumulations. KS remains a more difficult aspect of this forecast as temperatures in these areas will largely remain at or just slightly above the 32ºF mark. However, given the steady nature of the snow, snow accumulations are expected even in these areas leading to hazardous travel conditions. After the storm system passes to the east of the region Sunday night into Monday, temperatures will fall with many areas under a snowpack dropping well into the teens and likely single digits in some areas.
With every passing run the system continues to trend slightly stronger. Even with this fact, the low pressure system should remain rather broad/elongated, helping to keep wind speeds down through the event. Wind gusts during the day Saturday will likely gust to 25mph in KS and southeastern NE with gusts upwards of 20mph expected in MO. Blowing snow will be a minimal risk (though not zero) because of the wet snow.
Here’s an updated snowfall graphic for Friday afternoon through Saturday night: Overall, a sprawled out area of snow accumulation is anticipated from western KS through northeastern KS/southeastern NE into southern IA and most of MO. A bullseye for snow accumulations of 8-12″+ is located in northeastern MO, including Columbia, Quincy and the St. Louis Metro area. A swath of 5-8″ extends into the southern-fourth of IA, northwestern MO and even far northeastern KS while rain mixing in further south across southern KS and far southern MO will hinder snow accumulations. Take a look at the sharp snow gradient in southern MO which could easily fluctuate depending on strength and track of the low pressure system. Northern NE and far northern IA will receive little to no snow. There are also some model guidance that are more aggressive in KS but we are not ready to increase those totals yet due to modest temperatures. However, heading into tomorrow’s updates, there is a real possibility that these amounts will be increased.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!