As the nation strives to improve the reliability of its electrical grid, utilities face a critical question: is the weather data you’re using precise enough to ensure safe and efficient operations? Accurate weather information is more crucial than ever, especially in light of recent regulatory changes.
In 2021, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued Order 881, requiring utilities and companies involved in electricity transmission (those responsible for the large power lines that carry energy to a community, as opposed to the smaller distribution lines that bring power to individual buildings) to incorporate more detailed weather data into their operations. This shift marks a significant change in grid management practices, aiming to enhance both safety and efficiency.
The Role of Weather in Grid Management
As electricity flows through power lines, it generates heat. When metal lines heat up, they can sag, leading to safety concerns or even equipment failure. To avoid these risks, grid operators often reduce the amount of electricity on lines nearing their thermal limits, redirecting power to other lines, even if the alternative routes are less efficient. However, when weather conditions are favorable—such as when cooler temperatures are present—grid operators can safely push more electricity through the optimal paths, maximizing efficiency.
Weather, particularly heat, has a significant impact on the grid’s performance. The ambient air temperature, whether hotter or cooler than the power line, directly influences how much electricity can safely travel across it.
Challenges with Traditional Approaches
Historically, many transmission providers have used a “worst-case weather scenario” to estimate the temperature variable when determining how much electricity can flow across a power line. This practice typically involves setting two seasonal benchmarks—one for a six-month summer season and another for a six-month winter season.
Consider the case of a worst-case scenario using a summer temperature of 105°F:
- Underestimating capacity: When actual temperatures are milder, say 85°F, this conservative estimate limits the amount of electricity allowed on the line. This artificial restriction can reduce the available supply of power, driving up electricity prices even though the system could safely handle more.
- Overestimating capacity: Conversely, if temperatures exceed the worst-case assumption—such as hitting 108°F—operators may still rely on the 105°F threshold. This creates the risk of overloading the line, potentially causing equipment failure or even blackouts if too much electricity is pushed through lines that can’t handle it.
FERC’s Solution: Order 881
FERC’s Order 881 mandates that transmission providers use more accurate and up-to-date weather data when determining how much electricity can be transmitted. According to former FERC Chair Richard Glick, this order is designed to ensure that the grid operates efficiently while also safely and affordably.
The key benefit of this approach is incorporating real-time weather data into both short- and long-term grid planning, allowing operators to make more informed decisions.
How BAM Weather Can Help
BAM Weather can provide organizations with the intelligence—the blend of historical climate data and real-time forecasting—needed to make informed decisions and find the balance between safety and operational efficiency. At BAM Weather, we’ve partnered with numerous utilities, offering enhanced forecasts, access to professional meteorologists, and consulting services. By identifying trends and informing the planning process, we can help your organization leverage the most accurate weather data to ensure safe, reliable, and cost-effective grid operations.
About the Author
Patrick Van Horne is BAM Weather’s Director of Preparedness, where he helps clients prepare for severe weather and disasters. Before joining BAM Weather, Patrick served as a consultant serving the energy sector, an emergency manager in Boulder, Colorado, an entrepreneur, and as an officer in the U.S. Marine Corps. He is also the co-author of Left of Bang: How the Marine Corps’ Combat Hunter Program Can Save Your Life. Connect with Patrick on LinkedIn.