Speculated cuts of NOAA funding and staff would have immediate impacts on NWS forecast information, weather data and subsequently trickle-down impacts into the private sector.
By Bret Walts
Former NOAA officials told CBS News last week to expect a 50% reduction in staffing and budget cuts of 30% to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, though this has yet to be confirmed by NOAA or DOGE. The federally funded organization staffs about 12,000 employees across the world with 6,773 scientists and engineers. The National Weather Service (NWS), along with climate, marine, satellite, ocean and aviation sectors all fall under the NOAA umbrella meaning that potential cuts would impact most, if not all, of these sectors.
To get an adequate understanding of impacts to the weather forecasting infrastructure in the United States, here’s a short breakdown of the data and information provided by the NWS:
- Weather Forecasts:
- Issues public, aviation, marine, and fire weather forecasts for each office’s coverage area.
- Provides daily, weekly, and extended forecasts for various regions.
- Warnings and Alerts:
- Issues watches, warnings, and advisories for severe weather events like thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and high winds.
- Alerts for flash floods, river floods, and coastal flooding.
- Tsunami warnings and advisories.
- Hydrologic Services:
- Manages 13 River Forecast Centers which issue river forecasts, flood outlooks, and water supply forecasts.
- Provides support for water management, including reservoir operations and navigation forecasts.
- Climate and Drought Information:
- Collects and disseminates climate data, including local climate records and climatological summaries.
- Issues drought outlooks and participates in the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS).
- Aviation Support:
- Produces Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs) for airports.
- Supports the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) through Center Weather Service Units (CWSUs) co-located with Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC).
- Marine Forecasts:
- Issues marine warnings and forecasts for national waters, including coastal and offshore areas.
- Space Weather:
- Monitors and forecasts space weather through the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), providing alerts for solar activity affecting terrestrial systems like power grids and satellite communications.
- Observations and Data Collection:
- Operates a network of Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) for real-time weather observation.
- Manages the Cooperative Observer Program for collecting daily weather data from volunteers across the U.S.
- Weather Radio:
- Operates NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards (NWR), broadcasting continuous weather information and emergency alerts.
- Research and Development:
- Engages in research to improve forecasting techniques, models, and warning systems.
- Develops new tools and innovations for weather data analysis and assimilation.
- Technology and Infrastructure:
- Maintains and upgrades weather prediction models, satellites, supercomputers, and other technological infrastructure necessary for accurate forecasting.
While private forecasting companies, broadcast TV and weather apps all provide vastly different levels of forecast personalization, accuracy, tools and support, they do all rely on the National Weather Service for key data points such as:
- Radar and Satellite Data
- Weather Model Data
- Observational Data
- Severe Weather Alerts
While each weather source may utilize, display and integrate this data in vastly different ways, it’s a safe bet that these 4 keys are integral to any forecast consumed. Regardless of how some of these might be marketed, it is critical to understand that no one has their own “special” radar. Regardless of your chosen source of weather and radar, that data comes directly from NOAA/NWS and is simply displayed in different manners.
For example, BAM Weather’s Clarity platform utilizes what we call Multi-Radar, Multi-Sensor technology. It is an advanced conglomeration of multiple different radar sites, sensors and data points. While its display has been optimized and enhanced for the end user, the data source comes from NOAA. While local news networks may boast a special doppler radar, the data still comes from the same place. The same can be said for satellite data, observational data and to an extent, weather model data (though additional worldwide sources of weather data, customizable datasets, etc. provide more customization allowances for private organizations, like BAMWX.com, to utilize).
The bottom line is this: budget cuts to NOAA data would greatly impact the accuracy and reliability of data utilized across the board in the meteorological community.
In terms of operational forecasting, private companies, however, can help fill some gaps. While NWS offices can get more precise with tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings, issuances like advisories, watches, statements and forecast discussions tend to be generalized for more widespread areas to most easily communicate with the general public.
A great example of that would be the NWS Indianapolis Winter Weather Advisory for Wednesday February 12, 2025. While their customized map shared online broke down the ice totals with the advisory in greater detail, the advisory verbiage that most of the public would see, contained more vague verbiage:
* WHAT…Mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations up to
around a quarter of an inch. Total snow accumulations up to three
inches in far North Central Indiana.
* WHERE…Portions of central, east central, north central, and west
central Indiana.
* WHEN…Until 4 AM EST Thursday.
Ultimately, the southern portion of the advisory area was never in play for the upper-end totals for both snow and ice. This particular example isn’t a knock on the NWS, but highlights the limitations to aerial advisories/alerts.
However, Clarity users, for example, are able to get more personalized forecast details and more granular information by monitoring custom forecast insights (for ANY type of weather regardless of NWS forecast criteria) and speaking directly with meteorologists issuing forecasts. This type of support is more critical for business and operational high-cost decisions. Meteorologists may utilize data provided by NOAA, but will ultimately create their own forecast analyses without guidance from the NWS.
Here’s a few key pieces of the forecast support provided by Clarity that may help fill gaps in NWS forecasts – especially amid pending budget cuts:
- 24/7/365 Weather Consultation
- Custom Forecast Insights
- Custom Nowcast Updates (localized and tailored for end-users)
- Long-Range Outlooks and Analyses
- Custom Impactful Weather Maps
At the end of the day, the keys here are the following:
- Funding for NOAA data, research and observational tools are absolutely critical to all aspects of weather forecasting across the United States. Arguably, the US is behind other parts of the world in weather modeling and the radar network is in need of an update with frequent downtime due to maintenance.
- However, private organizations like BAM Weather and Clarity have the ability to fill gaps left by the NWS in its current state and that ability will only become more critical for decision makers if funding for NWS operational forecasting is slashed.
For more information about Clarity by BAM Weather head to BAMWX.com/clarity.