11-5-18 IN/IL/OH: Discussing strong storm potential, wintry risks & very cold temps settling in across the Region. K.

Today’s video:

Hoping you all had a blessed weekend! The big story today of course is the stout low pressure system that will be rolling its way east this afternoon into the overnight, bringing strong storm and dangerous wind potential especially for locations across southern IL, KY, southern IN into Ohio. Simply put we have very strong winds aloft (jet stream) that will be mixing down to the surface, which can be upwards or exceeding the severe weather threshold (58mph+) at times:

Here’s how the forecasted simulated radar is panning out through early Wednesday…expecting the bulk of the storm threat to impact southern IL from ~2-9pmCST, ~5pm-2amEST for IN and ~10pm-4amEST for OH locations. Again, some of these storms may reach strong to severe criteria with damaging winds, especially south near the Ohio River into Kentucky and south of I-70 for Ohio locations. Lingering drizzle risks are also likely waking up into Tuesday morning for most of us as well:

Total rainfall here over the next 36 hours is below…areas south of I-70 we think a base of ~0.5-1.0″ is possible; areas from Columbus/Cincinnati, OH to Louisville, Evansville, IN to Cape Girardeau and points south are at risk to seeing ~1.0-2.0″. A few locations across northern IL/IN into southern MI are susceptible to ~0.25-0.75″ as well. For the folks in between these 2 areas we have the risk to seeing ~0.1-0.5:

We target another VERY weak wave of rain showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning south…we will be battling a lot of dry air with this, probably just a sprinkle risk at this time south of I-70:

Crazy enough, but we are watching very closely a possibly wintry mix of rain and snow showers working in late Thursday night into Friday morning as discussed in the video; need to iron out the details but given the very cold air associated with this wave our concern is already elevated for some slick spots. Accumulations on roadways will be tough given the mixing with rain but it’s not out of the questions on elevated and grassy surfaces:

Following this we see a cold, strong northwest wind work in Friday night into Saturday morning…this would create a lake effect snow scenario across NE IL, southern MI, northern IN into northern OH; again, we will fine-tune this details as we get closer to this timeframe but keep these 2 scenarios on your radar:

Total precipitation guidance from the European model is below over the next 5 days…the best risks for ~0.5-1.5″ coming to areas south and east especially in the short-term:

High temperatures over the next 4 days:

Low temperatures over the next 4 days…you can see the cold air really start to build in starting Wednesday morning into the remainder of the week more widespread into the 20s/30s:

Wind forecast over the next 4 days…overall breezy conditions settle in into mid-week; again, some strong to severe wind gusts possible late tonight areas south near the Ohio River and points south into Kentucky and areas south of I-70 in Ohio:

High/low temperature guidance over the next 10 days…some “winter-like” temps are like probably widespread across the Region late week into the weekend and next week: