Good morning! We still have the remnants of Gordon to work with today. Showers and maybe a few thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon/early evening hours. The heaviest bulk of rains have shifted east of the area but more showers and storms will work in along the Ohio River today.
Flash Flood Watches remain in effect for the Cincinnati area with a couple Flood Warnings along some of the tributaries in the area.
The Weather Prediction Center is highlighting Cincinnati for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall through the afternoon/early evening hours. The best chance for the heaviest rains at this point look to remain east but a few heavier showers and storms are possible.
Here’s a timestamp view of a the NAM3km model and its depiction of the rains as they work west to east across the area. This is a general timeframe of when to expect the rains and it will likely vary depending on the exact track of the low (speed and orientation are key). Generally, we expect the rains to be clearing the Cincinnati area between 6-7pm EDT. Even with a bulk of the rains clearing around this time, areas of drizzle are likely to persist.
Simulated radar through 8am EDT Monday: Lingering showers and storms are expected through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours. Scattered storms will likely further develop along the Ohio River in IN and southwestern OH as the morning progresses into the afternoon hours, with Cincinnati under threat. As stated in a previous update, a storm or two may track over ballpark during the early to middle portions of the 4pm game, but this activity will be lifting out to the east between 6-7pm. Given the dynamics at play and high levels of helicity (or spin), a few of these storms may become strong to severe with marginal severe hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. It’s worthy to note that the HRRR and NSSL model are slightly slower with the progression of the rains across the area, keeping showers and storms around as late as 8pm EDT this evening. This is a possibility if the system slows but based on the speed of the circulation yesterday and the models projecting the system to be strong and slower, we have to side with the NAM3km. After these showers and storms clear this evening, areas of drizzle will persist afterwards through the nighttime hours.
Low-level moisture is expected to hang around through the day into Monday night leading to the areas of drizzle continuing through this timeframe. The 6:40pm EDT game Monday is expected to not have much problems with only light drizzle and low clouds the main concerns.
Latest rainfall guidance through 8am EDT Tuesday: This graphic was taken from this morning’s OHV post, but an additional 1-2″ of rain is expected in Cincinnati. Localized amounts of around 3″ is possible if persistent showers and storms track over the ballpark today.
Temperatures during game time today will be quite low due to the rains inducing cooler air. Look for temperatures to hover in the low-mid 60s throughout the game. Temperatures won’t recover greatly heading into tomorrow with mid-upper 60s expected during game time.
Models are hinting at a calmer area of wind (due to close proximity to the surface low) across the Cincy area during game time today. Any slight deviations in track can lead to stronger wind gusts of 20-35mph. Winds will likely pick back up overnight tonight into tomorrow.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!