Key Points – Friday, May 19, 2017:
Synopsis: Good Friday morning, multiple waves of heavy rains and strong storms possible into this weekend which will require multiple updates going forward; highly encourage you to watch the video through until the end and let us know if you have any questions at all. Have a wonderful weekend.
Strong storm risks next 2-3 days…main threats being gusty winds, isolated large hail and very heavy rainfall including potential flash flooding at times. Think Saturday into Sunday’s risk needs to be pulled slightly further east including western Ohio.
Simulated radar through Saturday morning…if these storms stall out longer than the model sees, some flash flooding will be possible. Can’t rule out a strong storm as well as these cells move east into Indiana and Ohio.
Simulated Radar Saturday into Sunday…multiple waves of storms likely here starting through the morning/early afternoon hours Saturday, and then as the cold front moves east later Saturday night another wave of storms and heavy rains possible. Can’t rule out isolated strong storms within both of these waves.
Total rainfall…needs to be noted, models not picking up well on how heavy this rain will be…could see double these totals in some locations…wouldn’t be shocked to see some locations to see 3-6″ throughout the weekend.
10-day rainfall totals best seen by yesterday’s European model, although again, I think all of our models are underdoing total rainfall through this period, I think some locations will see 6″+.
New European Weeklies in with a continued active pattern over the next month and a half through June, we discuss also in the video how we have cooler risks as well.
- Above average confidence heavy storms move east this morning and throughout the day.
- Average confidence of potential flash flooding in this scenario as well at times.
- Average but increasing confidence of a multiple waves of storms and heavy rains moving east on Saturday into Sunday.
- Increasing confidence of multiple shower chances getting into next week as well…pattern remains active.
- Increasing confidence we end the month and open June cooler than normal.
Today’s video (8 min):