Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. Knowing how to interpret hurricane forecasts is essential for preparing in advance of any potential storm.
Early Outlooks
Tropical weather outlooks are issued several days before a storm may form. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and services like BAM Weather highlight areas where tropical development is possible. At this early stage, no specific storm path is known, and more data is needed to produce a forecast cone.
The Forecast Cone
As more information becomes available, a “forecast cone” is created to show the probable path of the storm’s center (or eye). It’s important to understand:
- The cone does not show the size of the storm.
- The cone tracks the eye of the storm specifically.
- Impacts like wind, rain, and storm surge can occur far outside the cone.
- The width of the cone reflects forecast confidence–a narrower cone means higher confidence in the projected path.
Storm tracks can shift, so stay updated frequently.
Watches and Warnings: What They Mean
Knowing the difference between watches and warnings can help you respond appropriately:
- Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.
- Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area.
- Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. Begin preparing.
- Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours. Evacuate if instructed.
- Storm Surge Watch: Life-threatening coastal flooding is possible within 48 hours.
- Storm Surge Warning: Life-threatening coastal flooding is expected within 36 hours. Evacuations should take place along coastal areas.
Be sure to stay up-to-date on the forecast and evolving information and always follow guidance from local officials about evacuation orders/mandates when any of these alerts are issued.
BAM Weather can help you stay safe this hurricane season by providing consistent updates on the development and track of storms. You can also talk directly with a meteorologist via our chat feature to get the most up-to-date information! Check it out, here.