#IAwx #MOwx #NEwx #KSwx #AGwx Hot and Active Pattern Developing Next Week! E.
Key Points: May 12, 2017
Synopsis: Good Friday morning! We continue to see showers and embedded thunderstorms across extreme southeastern Kansas into southern Missouri. These will push east through today giving way to what looks like a warm and largely dry weekend. A developing area of low pressure brings the threat for showers and storms back into the picture across western Kansas and Nebraska Monday afternoon and evening. This threat pushes into eastern Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa Tuesday, and into Missouri by Wednesday. Warm and active times look to continue through the end of next week and possibly into next weekend as well. Have a great weekend!
- Current Radar:
- These showers and storms move southeast throughout today, with northern portions of the area seeing some sunshine.
- This weekend continues to look dry as a ridge of high pressure controls our weather pattern.
- Despite active conditions developing, temperatures over the next 10 days look quite warm to even hot with temperatures 4-8 degrees above normal. This will lead to upper 80s and even some 90s across the region.
- At the same time, we are tracking both a severe weather and flooding threat next week. The SPC is highlighting a severe threat across Kansas Tuesday. While the SPC has not outlined the remainder of the week, we believe strong storm risks continue much of next week.
- Our MegaCluster data is also quite bullish on rainfall into the 6-10 day across the region, possibly leading to additional flooding concerns. We will monitor this into next week.
- Active times look to continue into the week 3 and 4 week period as well. Here’s the latest week 3-4 precipitation analog.
Confidence and Risks:
- Above average confidence in a dry weekend with warm to hot conditions.
- Above average confidence in hot conditions next week with 90s likely.
- Above average confidence in thunderstorms developing Monday and spreading east through the week with a severe threat in Kansas Tuesday.
- Increasing confidence in continuing the active regime into the end of the month and even into the start of June.
Today’s Video (8 minutes):