Key Points – Friday, May 5th, 2017:
Synopsis: Good Friday morning! We are actually waking up to nothing on the radar this morning, something that hasn’t occurred in a very long time. In the coming days we will see overall above normal warmth (except for eastern Iowa and eastern Missouri) and a lot of dry time through the weekend. The interesting thing to note, however, is the trend to above normal rains once again mid to late next week as the pattern turns active again and cooler as well, all the details in the video. Have a wonderful weekend.
Radar is clear this morning and will be through Sunday, check out these high temperatures over the next 4 days!
As discussed in the video, we look for the pattern to turn active into next week, that dry window doesn’t look to last long unfortunately. Check out the latest European model’s rainfall totals over the next 10 days, not a good situation for folks across eastern Kansas into Missouri.
Looking at the pattern in the 6-10 day timeframe, you can see these above normal rains starting to show up across the central Plains as the storms ride over the top of the southern ridge that sets up.
The above normal warmth doesn’t last, the pattern in the 6-10 day is overall below normal across Zone 8, couple that with above normal rains in some locations and conditions don’t look conducive for much work in the fields.
Pattern late month definitely looks stormy seen here well by the latest European Weeklies…we have air masses colliding into each other that would give us additional heavier rains and even strong storms. Need to watch this closely.
Confidence and Risk:
- Above average confidence we stay dry and warm overall in the next 3 days across the central Plains.
- Increasing confidence the pattern turns active once again for Zone 8 as storms ride over the top of the southern ridge.
- Average risk we turn cooler than normal into mid to late next week as well.
- Above average risk the pattern towards the end of the month looks stormy with additional heavy rains possible and strong storms as well.
Today’s video (7 min):