Today’s video:
Good morning everyone!
Observed precipitation over the past 24 hours:
Expecting storm coverage to continue to move west to east as we go throughout the AM hours today into this afternoon and evening as shown below. Expecting much of ND/SD to start drying out between 5-8pmCT widespread….maintaining coverage especially across the northern half of MN into the overnight. Strong storm risks across southern MN are outlined in the image below:
From 3-10pm from west to east we think some strong to severe storms are possible from Sioux Falls to Mankato to Rochester. Main threats will be damaging winds and hail…with isolated tornadoes on the table as well in spots cannot be fully ruled out:
Total rainfall guidance just from today into tonight is below…favoring from north of Pierre to Bismarck, east to Aberdeen, Fargo, Grand Rapids and points northeast to see widespread 0.5-1.5″…localized higher amounts on the table. Regarding the areas at risk for strong storms south of Aberdeen to Sioux Falls, Worthington, Fergus Falls to Mankato, Minneapolis to Rochester we favor also 0.5-1.5″ (iso higher)…but to be more scattered in nature. Locations across NW ND we favor ~0.1-0.5″ with localized 0.5-1″ possible in spots with moisture moving south to north on the backside of the low pressure system:
The remainder of the day Tuesday overall is fairly inactive during the daylight hours…however, late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is another story, with another potent round of showers and storms working in west to east as shown in the timestamps below and in the video hour-by-hour breakdown above:
Rainfall just on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is below…seeing widespread risks of 0.5-1.5″+ from Rapid City to Pierre to Sioux Falls and near Worthington as well…~0.25-0.75″ scattered in far western ND possible as well in spots:
Our THIRD low pressure system is targeted to work in areas west late Wednesday afternoon into the evening and slowly work its way east throughout the overnight into the day on Thursday as shown below…bringing widespread rainfall risks to the eastern half of SD to the southern half of MN, lifting across ND into the afternoon Thursday and swinging a cold front across the eastern half of MN Thursday late afternoon into the evening from west to east. The pattern from Friday into the weekend becomes MUCH less active with little to no rainfall coverage anticipated at this time:
When it’s all said and done, I think almost our entire forecast area ends of with 1-3″ by Friday morning:
Wind forecast guidance over the next 4 days:
North Dakota
Crosby:
Jamestown:
Fargo:
South Dakota
Pierre:
Aberdeen:
Sioux Falls:
Minnesota
Worthington:
Grand Rapids:
Minneapolis:
Rochester:
Have a great day!