Good Monday Afternoon!
Below is a what we are seeing on radar right now- we are looking at a widespread rain shield that extends along the ND/CAN border and the ND/MN border with a spotty shower in SW ND:
Moving into the evening and overnight hours, we think that much of this rain will gradually lift north and provide the state with some dry time. We cant 100% rule out some leftover lingering showers especially north, but favor much of the state to be on the dry side of things by the 11 PM tonight to 1 AM timeframe. This is modeled simulated radar from 6 PM CT tonight until 7 AM CT tomorrow morning:
As we push to tomorrow, high temperatures look to stay below normal with parts of NE ND topping out in the low 60s and SW ND looking at temps in the low 70s. This model may be a touch underdone in S ND and we think actual highs could be a few degrees higher than what is being shown:
Heading into our Tuesday, we think much of ND stays dry with only a few extremely isolated showers. Below is modeled upper level energy from 1 AM CT Tue morning until 7 PM CT Tuesday evening. We can see our ridge located in SE US that is pumping flow around it from SW to NE- the placement of the ridge and a trough out west is what is keeping most of North Dakota at risk for rainfall for the next several days:
A look at what simulated radar could look like from 7 AM CT tomorrow until 7 PM CT tomorrow afternoon. As mentioned in the AM update, we think that ND could be looking at a pretty dry day tomorrow before turning our attention to the next round of precip. Note that at the end of this loop we see some showers and storms start to form in SD and start to creep N- Tue night will be the next shot at rain:
A look at precipitation guidance out through 7 PM CT Tue evening. Overall we generally agree with this model, however we think SE ND may be a little overdone on totals. There does look to be a pocket of showers and storms that tries to hit far SE ND tonight, but we think these totals are a little too aggressive. Much of South Central and SW ND should stay dry with the only threat of precip coming in the form of very light, extremely isolated leftover showers :
Please reach out to our email at [email protected] with any questions you have! Enjoy the rest of your Monday afternoon!