Let us know if you have any questions, have a blessed day! -Kirk
Temperatures:
- No major changes to our temperature forecast for October. Overall data has remained fairly consistent and is in line with our analog package.
- We have cooled the NE US slightly and the Ohio Valley due to the very cool start to the month and the risks for lingering cool air east at times. We do, however, believe that the Central US can really warm up into the second week of October related to the persistent +SOI state and some MJO forcing.
- Our top tropical forcing analogs and overall analogs are 1999, 2005, 2008, 2010 and 2011. These years were overall very warm for the Western and Central US with cooler air in the SE US. Given a cooler look in East Asia and in the North Pacific, we are leaning a touch cooler in the NE than these analogs, but they are not far off.
- One risk we want to note is that if we feel more –AAM or feel the time-lagged MJO phase 3 forcing, there is a slight warmer risk East vs. our forecast.
Precipitation:
- We trended drier in the Central and Northern Plains with the increased threat of a Central US ridge given the +SOI state.
- Overall, we really have no data or analogs at this point that would suggest a wet pattern for October. Everything is in good agreement of more dry time than wet time this month.
- We are certainly going to be starting out the month dry and with a western and central US tendency in the ridging, lack of a sub-tropical jet and potential tropical activity, the risk may be drier if anything for the E. Ag Belt.
- If the ridge were to setup slightly east, the driest risks could come east a bit (which analogs try to hint at).
- The +SOI, MJO phase 3, lack of storm dates, top analogs, etc. give us higher than normal confidence with drier risks for much of the Ag Belt.