Good morning everyone! The region remains quiet this morning with some cloud cover across the western Dakotas and northern MN. Shown below are the observed temperatures across the Northern Plains (valid as of 7am CDT). Plenty of cooler air has funneled in behind the strong cold front that worked through the region a couple days ago. This morning most areas dropped into the 40s with temperatures in the 30s across eastern MN. Areas of frost in these areas will likely dissipate over the next couple of hours.
Shower chances will begin to increase once again today, though it will be more confined to our far northern areas. Energy gliding along a slow southward-progressing cold front will bring areas of showers throughout the day in the circled region below. While more likely further north across southern Canada, a few snowflakes may mix in with the rain showers given how cool the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere are.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Sunday: Areas of showers will clip northern ND and northern MN through the day into tonight. As previously stated, a few snow showers are also possible in these areas, though will be quite limited. By 7am CDT Sunday, rain showers will be exiting northeastern MN with a new batch of showers likely impacting far northern ND.
More upper-level energy will begin to lift in from the west and impact areas further south through the day Sunday. This includes the Dakotas and points further south in northern MN where areas of light showers and perhaps a storm or two will likely impact. Warmer air will be lifting north across SD and southern MN, but a cooler airmass will remain draped just north of the cold front across ND, so a few snowflakes may once again mix in once again across northern ND.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Sunday through 7am CDT Monday: Areas of light showers will continue to clip the northern portions of the region through the day Sunday with points further south across the Dakotas working in light shower/drizzle activity, especially as Sunday progresses into Sunday night. Light shower activity will increase in coverage during the nighttime hours Sunday into Monday across the region. Enough instability may build up in the eastern Dakotas into MN late Sunday night into Monday morning to provide a few storm chances within the shower activity.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: Areas across far northern MN into the northern third of MN can see 0.1-0.4″ of rain through this timespan with the heavier rains more likely just north of the border into southern Canada. Elsewhere, light shower activity is expected to remain light enough that very little in the way of observable rainfall is expected (up to 0.1″ of rain likely).
Here’s a look at the 7-day total rainfall from the European Model: A majority of the rains through this period will clip the far northern portions of the area with lighter rain amounts expected further south.
Temperatures will remain quite low across the far northern areas today and Sunday, possibly not making it out of the 40s for highs. 60s and 70s for highs will be more prevalent south of these areas. With overnight lows in the 30s and lower 40s across ND and northern MN tonight and Sunday night, frosts risks are on the table. A few locations may experience a freeze as well.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: Much lower humidity levels will remain across the northern areas with a slight uptick in humidity expected Sunday and Monday ahead of a cold front across eastern SD into central/southern MN.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
With some stronger gusts and lower relative humidities, Red Flag Warnings have been hoisted across southwestern SD due to the fire danger. This fire danger will likely persist in these areas through the weekend.
Here’s a look at the city charts for Bismarck, Fargo, Sioux Falls and Minneapolis over the next 15 days: Please note that this is an ensemble which averages/smoothes the numbers.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!