Good evening everyone! A broken line of strong storms has been developing over the last couple of hours stretching from northwestern IA southwestward into western KS as of 4:30pm CDT. This line will become better organized through the evening hours as it progresses eastward. This will allow the severe weather threat to increase as well during this time. An isolated, strong complex can also be noted across the NE panhandle and should track behind this broken line over the next several hours. There are a few pop-ups across MO and these should dwindle as daytime heating is lost this evening.
The SPC is highlighting a large section of IA (specifically northern and western portions), eastern NE, far northwestern MO and northern KS for strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. The strong line of storms is expected to track through these areas with possibly a few supercells leading out ahead of this line in northern IA. Any supercells that develop across northern IA will have the potential to put down tornadoes due to strong wind shear, helicity (or spin) and instability present in the area. Damaging winds and large hail may also accompany these storms. This also happens to be where a warm front is currently positioned, which only adds to the risk as warm fronts can outperform. As the line progresses eastward this evening into tonight, a few brief spin-ups are possible along its leading edge. Any tornadoes that do develop along the line will likely be rain-wrapped so definitely be on-guard this evening given the threat in the region.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for western IA, eastern NE, far northwestern MO and portions of northern KS until 11pm CDT. A cold front will push through the area tonight, kicking these storms eastward.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Friday: A strong to severe line of storms will continue to develop and track through IA, eastern NE, KS and northwestern MO this evening into the early overnight before gradually weakening in intensity overnight as it approaches eastern IA, eastern KS and northern MO. Behind this main feature, isolated strong storms will follow along in western/central NE and northern KS, gradually fading as the environment becomes less conducive. The line of storms is expected to continue to weaken overnight across eastern IA and northern MO with most convection remaining towards the south in central/eastern KS into central MO by 8am CDT Friday.
Here’s a brief look into what to expect going forward through the day Friday into Friday night: Most energy will remain towards the south, which is where a vast majority of the precipitation will be found at that point. This includes southeastern KS into the southern two-thirds of MO.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Friday through 7am CDT Saturday: Rains will continue to drift southward Friday morning with a shield of lighter rain persisting across southeastern KS into the southern half of MO through Friday into Saturday morning. The interaction between the cold front and an upper-level low to the south will keep these rains around.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Friday: The line of storms that will progress through the region this evening into tonight will drop anywhere from 0.5-1.5″ of rain with locally higher amounts across portions of western IA, southeastern NE and KS. As the line fades late tonight into tomorrow morning, rainfall amounts will lessen further southeast.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!