Good Monday and Labor Day Morning everyone!
Here’s a look at your latest 7 Day Forecast:
Today should be a very quiet day across the area with a lack of instability and moisture preventing pop up storm chances/clusters like yesterday. Winds look to generally remain out of the north but could become more variable as the day goes on. Winds will be very light at 5 MPH throughout the day – perhaps some gusts to 10 MPH in the early afternoon. High temperatures will be in the upper-7os to around 80F. As we work into tomorrow we do increase the moisture and a front will begin to work down from the northwest. Initially there is a wave of energy tomorrow morning and early tomorrow afternoon that could bring some scattered activity into the northern third of the state, but not anticipating impacts from this at the speedway. Note, we also anticipate winds to generally be sustained at 10MPH throughout the day with gusts to 20-25 MPH from the SW.
The main front will begin to work through the area as we work into the late evening and overnight hours. The best instability will remain to the northwest and as we lose daytime heating the line of storms that initially develops to our northwest will likely weaken. With that being said, we’d watch for a broken line of storms to push through the area arriving between 8 – 11PM. Given some dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and a stout low-level jet, some of these storms could contain strong winds gusts of 45 MPH+.
Any storm that moves over the speedway can produce a quick 0.25 – 0.75″ of rainfall. This front should pass through in the overnight hours and lend to drier air and high pressure for Wednesday. In fact, this dry air should hang around on both Thursday and Friday leading to plentiful sunshine and beautiful conditions. There is a weak wave of energy on Friday afternoon that we will keep an eye on but given the dry air in place and lack of instability we are going to stay dry in our forecast.
As we work into the weekend, we do get a bit of a stationary boundary to setup and some energy to ride to the north of this boundary which could increase precipitation chances. This begins to setup on Saturday, but looks to have the biggest impacts on Sunday. An initial wave of energy is forecasted to move through on Saturday night especially after 8PM – 12AM. There is no instability with this wave so main risk would likely be scattered rain showers.
Sunday is the day we need to watch the closest as far as precipitation chances. There are still notable discrepancies in the data for Sunday, but we do see a weak stationary boundary setting up and increasing moisture. Given this, we do think especially along and north of Indianapolis has the potential to see a wave of rain and storms. Data is still all over the place with timing and exact intensity of any chances, so we keep the % of the 7-day lower given low confidence especially at this distance. At this time the best chances look to be in the afternoon and evening hours.
Total precipitation for the week looks to be between 0.1 – 0.5″ with isolated higher totals with storms for Tuesday night.
If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out and have a great day!