Good afternoon everyone! Scattered areas of showers and storms continue to track across portions of IA into eastern NE as of 1pm CDT. Expect this convection to continue on a northeast trajectory through the afternoon hours.
More strong to severe thunderstorms are on the table today given the moist, unstable environment. Given some recover in the atmosphere is possible through the afternoon hours, some storms may become strong, especially in southeastern NE (yellow shaded area on the left side). Given the dynamics at play later this afternoon and evening, I can’t rule out damaging winds and large hail accompanying some storms. A couple isolated tornadoes are also possible. The SPC does not highlight any areas for severe weather tomorrow (more general storms), but after looking at 12z model data, I can’t rule out some of the storms in the area becoming strong with gusty winds and hail. There’s a decent amount of instability around but lapse rates and wind shear appear minimal at this time.
Flash flooding will be the main threat with the storms across IA and eastern NE through Tuesday night as multiple rounds of heavy storms continue to inundate the same areas. IA is the best target today and tomorrow for very heavy rains but as mentioned locations across eastern NE can see flooding.
Here’s a look at what to expect late this afternoon into the late evening hours: More energy will pulse through the region, providing additional opportunities for heavy rains across southern/eastern NE into IA.
Simulated radar through 7pm CDT this evening: Areas of showers and storms continue to push northeastward through the afternoon hours, slowly gaining intensity with more flare-ups across southern/eastern NE into IA as the afternoon progresses into the evening hours. A couple clusters appear imminent at this time by the end of the loop and especially afterwards across the already mentioned areas. These storms may begin to sink southwards some as well.
Simulated radar from 7pm CDT this evening through 7am CDT Monday: Heavy clusters of storms will continue across portions of southern/eastern NE into IA during a majority of this timespan. The storms across NE will likely drift southward some further into KS while convection across eastern NE works into IA. By the end of this loop (7am CDT) areas of heavy storms will be persisting across IA with a few areas of showers and storms remaining across the eastern third of NE. These storms will be springing northeastward at this point across IA.
Jumping ahead, here’s an updated version of what to expect late tomorrow afternoon and evening. As stated before, morning convection will lift back north through IA and the eastern third of NE through the morning hours. Scattered energy will remain across the area, sparking additional showers and storms across portions of NE and IA during the afternoon and evening hours.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Morning convection across IA and the eastern third of NE will progress northward with a complex of showers and storms likely trying to hold on across IA during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Morning convection will be replaced by an additional round of scattered heavy storms, especially after 2pm CDT across southern/eastern NE and IA. There could be multiple waves of these storms as they progress northward through the same areas during the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours, though they appear to be more scattered in nature during this time. Upper-level energy continues to lift northward Monday night and along with it numerous areas of showers and storms across central/eastern NE into IA. The eastern half of NE into western IA look to be impacted by heavy showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday morning. Some clearing is likely Tuesday morning across eastern IA. There will be upper-level energy noted in western NE Monday afternoon into Monday night, leading to the possibility of showers and storms (though not really depicted).
Total rainfall through 10am CDT Tuesday: Widespread 2-3″ of rain can be expected across a majority of IA into southeastern NE. There will be several pockets of 3-6″+ given the high moisture content in the atmosphere and plentiful amount of disturbances riding through the region. There may be a few patches that fail to see 2″ (far southeastern IA is a possibility) but those will be few and far between. Western NE will stay drier through this time as most disturbances stay just east of this area. A few areas may pick up a quick 0.25-0.75″ of rain if rains materialize from the energy discussed in western NE.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!