Good afternoon everyone! Scattered areas of showers and storms continue to track across portions of northeastern KS into northwestern MO as of 1:10pm CDT. Expect this convection to continue on a northeast trajectory through the afternoon hours.
More strong to severe thunderstorms are on the table today given the moist, unstable environment. Some recovery in the atmosphere has allow destabilization to occur, especially in northern/northeastern KS into northwestern MO. Storms that develop in the regions shown below on the left can produce large hail and damaging winds, especially in the slight risk area (yellow shading). A couple isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. The SPC does not highlight any areas for severe weather tomorrow but after taking a look at 12z model data, there is a chance for isolated severe wind gusts and small hail accompanying the storms in the circled region for Monday. There is decent instability but lapse rates and wind shear appear quite minimal at this time. It is important to note that storms can become severe at any time through Monday, even at night.
Flash flooding will be the main threat with the storms across central/northeastern KS and far northern MO through Tuesday night as multiple rounds of heavy storms continue to inundate the same areas. Central and northeastern KS is the best target for heavy rains but as mentioned, far northern MO can work in some of these rains. Central and southern MO will stay drier.
Here’s a look at what to expect late this afternoon into the early overnight hours: More energy will pulse into the region, providing once again an additional opportunity for heavy rains across a majority of KS (exception being far southeastern KS) into portions of northwestern MO this evening into tonight. Some of these storms may drift more southward after development, leaving portions of northeastern KS into south-central KS at risk for more storms.
Simulated radar through 7pm CDT this evening: With a frontal boundary in place across KS into northern MO, scattered strong, heavy storms will once again redevelop along with ongoing convection across the area, especially after 3pm CDT this afternoon. A cluster of storms appear likely from western KS eastward into northwestern MO from late afternoon and evening hours. These storms will also begin to sink southward some by the end of this loop (7pm CDT). A few pulse-type storms are expected to develop due to instability across central and southern MO over the next several hours.
Simulated radar from 7pm CDT this evening through 7am CDT Monday: Pulse-type storms across central/southern MO will fade away as daytime heating is lost this evening. A heavy, strong cluster of storms will drift slowly southward through the early nighttime hours across a large portion of KS into northwestern MO. These rains may be slow-moving overnight, giving portions of KS and far northwestern MO repeated rounds of heavy rains. All high-resolution models are in agreement that central and northeastern KS will likely be inundated by these storms as they don’t track very far overnight. Given the energy present in the atmosphere along with high moisture content and a boundary in the area, it is hard to disagree with this solution. By 7am CDT Monday (end of loop) areas of showers and storms will be ongoing across central/northeastern KS into northwestern MO. Isolated showers or storms may impact western KS/southern MO at this time.
Jumping ahead, here’s an updated version of what to expect late tomorrow afternoon and evening. Morning convection will likely weaken in intensity/lift northward into NE and IA. Scattered energy will remain across the area, sparking additional showers and storms, mainly across KS and the northern third of MO during the afternoon and evening hours. An additional wave of storms from the southern plains will progress into KS overnight Monday into Tuesday.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Monday through 7am CDT Tuesday: Morning convection across KS and far northern MO will weaken/progress northward, being replaced by an additional round of scattered, heavy storms, mainly after 4pm CDT across a majority of KS and northwestern MO. An additional pulse of energy from the Rockies will lift into western KS, providing heavy rain risks to this area during the evening and overnight hours Monday into Tuesday. Areas of showers and storms will continue to lift northward through the remainder of the evening and overnight hours across KS and possibly far western MO (several rounds of showers and storms developing and lifting out of the area possible late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning). These storms will likely interact with another wave lifting northward into central/eastern KS late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Far western MO may get clipped by this disturbance as it progresses through. By 10am CDT Tuesday, these complexes of showers and storms will be lifting out of KS and northwestern MO, though another round is likely following it later Tuesday.
Total rainfall through 10am CDT Tuesday: Widespread 2-3″ of rain is expected across portions of central and northern KS. There will be several pockets of 3-6″+ of rain given the high moisture content in the atmosphere and plentiful amount of disturbances riding through the region. There may be a few patches that fail to see 2″ but those will likely be few and far between in the specified areas. Western KS did trend wetter since last run with that additional disturbance lifting into the area, so heavier rains are on the table. Portions of northwestern MO can pick up 1-3″ of rain pending the development and track of storms. Central/southern MO will largely miss out on these rains given a stout high pressure system located just east of the region. I can’t rule out some pulse-type storms during the afternoon/evening hours each day in this area.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!