Good afternoon everyone! A low-lying cloud deck in association with a frontal boundary remains across the eastern Dakotas into western/northern MN. These clouds will likely persist through the evening and overnight hours within the circled region and into northeastern MN, with areas of light showers and drizzle developing. A few isolated storms may also develop in the area due to instability residing in the area. An isolated storm may contain gusty winds and small hail.
Progressing through the night into Friday morning, additional energy will sweep into the northwest portions of SD into ND, bringing with it areas of widely scattered showers and even a few storms. The lower levels of the atmosphere will remain saturated across portions of SD into MN, increasing their risk for residual drizzle.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Friday: Areas of showers/drizzle are likely to develop through the evening and overnight hours across the eastern Dakotas into MN with perhaps a few storms mainly in eastern ND into northern MN. The energy previously discussed will work through ND with showers and a few storms affecting the state late tonight into Friday morning. Areas of drizzle will persist in SD and MN.
Areas of energy hanging around ND and possibly northern SD Friday will continue shower and storm risks in these areas. More of this energy will lift into northwestern MN during the afternoon and evening hours Friday with rain risks likely in the area. Shower and storm coverage will increase overnight Friday into Saturday morning with areas of convection likely across northern MN by 7am CDT Saturday. As is the case with this evening and tonight, areas of drizzle are possible in SD and MN.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Friday through 7am CDT Saturday: Areas of showers and storms work through ND and perhaps northern SD during the day Friday and into northern MN during the evening and overnight hours Friday into Saturday. Lighter rains, drizzle and lower cloud levels will remain across a large portion of the Northern Plains through the day Friday with that frontal boundary in place and a saturated lower atmosphere. As discussed previously, shower and storm coverage will increase across far eastern ND into northern MN Friday night and into Saturday morning. A few of these storms may be strong/severe.
Rains will remain rather light across the area as most observe only drizzle and rainfall amounts of less than 0.1″. Some isolated higher amounts (possibly 0.5-1.5″ of rain) can’t be ruled out where heavier showers and/or storms develop, especially in northern MN where coverage will be greatest. The NAM3km is likely overdone in rains that it shows, but it does show the areas where drizzle/light rain is likely.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!