Good Tuesday Afternoon!
A current look at radar shows that we are seeing some of our storms initiating in SW SD a few hours earlier than expected in yesterday’s PM update. We have some scattered showers mainly focused in W SD with the focus of stronger storms in SW SD:
Here is the map from the AM update- based on the latest data we are not seeing much reason to change the area outlined in red that has the best potential fore severe. We think that all forms of possible severe weather are on the table, including flash flooding. The area in green can still see some strong to severe storms, however this area is not as likely .One thing we do want to make clear- just because you are in the red or green outlined areas does not mean you 100% WILL see severe weather and if you are not included that you won’t see any storms. These are just the areas that have the best potential of seeing stronger storms based on atmospheric conditions:
A tornado watch was recently issued for the areas outlined in red until 9 PM MDT:
A look at what radar could be showing from until 5 PM CT this evening until 7 AM CT tomorrow. We can certainly see that most of the strong/severe activity hovers right around the SD/NE border and works its way east during the overnight hours. We think that much of the severe activity will start to Southwest/ South Central SD and work its way east as the night rolls on. The best shot for tornado’s and large hail will come in in SW/ S Central SD and wind / hail looks to be the biggest threat to SE SD:
As this area passes overnight and we work into our Wednesday, we are watching for another round of stronger storms to fire up again in the later afternoon/ evening hours. Based on the latest data this is the area we are favoring to see the highest risk of severe weather tomorrow PM and into the evening hours:
Simulated radar from 7 AM CT Wed morning until 7 PM CT Wed evening. At the beginning of the loop we can see some leftover showers hanging around SE SD as our first system works its way off into MN and IA. System number two starts to work its way into the area in the late afternoon/ early evening hours Wednesday. There can be some scattered showers and storms in the early PM hours, but this looks to be mainly focused in the W half of SD:
Precipitation guidance out through 7 PM CT Wednesday evening. We think this model does a pretty good job aligning with our overall thoughts. We think that over the next 24 hours there is going to be a decent swath of pretty impressive totals right along the SD/NE border in South Central and South East SD. We think in the area outlined in black, a general 0.75 to 2 inches is possible with localized amounts of 3″+ possible for the next ~24 hours. Elsewhere, we think the area outlined in red is a little underdone. This does look to be the area of SD that does see the least amount of rain, but overall we think amounts can be closer to 0.25 to 0.75 with some localized spots in SW SD higher than that:
Reach out to us ([email protected]) with any questions you have! Enjoy your Tuesday evening!