Good afternoon everyone! The heavy batch of rain that plagued portions of IA this morning has essentially cleared the area while a some isolated shower and storm activity persists across southern NE, northern KS, and northern MO. Current radar as of 12:40pm CDT:
More areas of heavy, strong storms are once again likely as a stalled frontal boundary sits over the central portions of the region. These storms will have a severe weather threat attached to them through the evening and likely during the overnight hours. There is some early afternoon cloud cover across portions of the risk area, but with partial clearing also happening at this time, the threat has increased slightly from this morning given destabilization and low-level moisture. The SPC has upgraded portions of southwestern IA, southeastern NE, and north-central KS to a slight risk for severe storms. Storms may contain large hail and damaging winds through tonight with an isolated tornado not out of the question.
The additional heavy pulses of showers and storms this evening into tonight will be a result of a forcing mechanism in the region as well as upper-level energy riding this boundary. Upper-level energy will align along this frontal boundary and with upper-air flow nearly parallel to the boundary, multiple areas of storms will likely train, increasing the flood threat. The circled region below depicts where the best chance for storms is expected to occur. Additional details are provided.
Simulated radar through 10am CDT Sunday: An additional round of heavy showers and storms, likely strong in some instances, will ignite across southern/eastern NE, northern/western KS, and IA mainly after 4pm CDT this afternoon. These storms will likely trail in a line through the evening and overnight hours across these areas, leading to heavy rainfall totals. Some of the energy will begin to lift northward overnight, slowly migrating some of these rains further into northern/central IA with pulses of showers and storms continuing across portions of NE and KS. Storm activity looks to subside during the morning hours Sunday, though pockets of showers and storms can be expected in KS, southern/eastern NE, IA, and northwestern MO during this time. Models have trended slightly drier in far northern MO. Regardless, some of these storms overnight may clip the far northern sections of the state with a better chance for storms coming during the morning hours Sunday. While the severe weather threat will likely be minimal tomorrow morning, a few storms may become strong once again.
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 7pm CDT Sunday: Storms aligning along the frontal boundary and supportive upper-air flow will likely result in areas of heavy rain/flooding this evening into tonight. There is a risk for storms outside of the circled region below, but they will be more isolated in nature. The best chance for heavier storms given the setup is situated within the circled area.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great rest of your day!