Good Tuesday afternoon!
A look at current radar conditions shows that we are are seeing some strong to severe storms starting to fire in South Central North Dakota and North Central South Dakota:
As we work later into the evening, we think this cluster of cells is going to work its way S and E along an instability gradient. This area of storms look to be severe with large hail and damaging winds as the main threats, but an isolated tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out. Below is simulated radar from 5 PM CT tonight until 5 AM CT tomorrow morning:
We think that this area has the best shot at seeing severe weather for the rest of the evening and into the overnight hours. There will likely be some severe storms outside of this area, but we think the strongest cells and most severe weather occurs inside this area as the cluster works SE:
After the storms work their way out of S SD tomorrow early in the morning, we think most of tomorrow can be drier with only some widely scattered activity across the Dakota’s (mainly ND). Below is simulated radar from 10 AM CT tomorrow until 7 PM CT:
Highs tomorrow look to have a decent temperature gradient across the Dakotas. We are looking at highs in the low 70s in N ND (brighter oranges/yellows) and highs in the mid 80s in S SD (darker reds). In between we find mid to upper 70s/low 80s across much of the ND/SD region:
Rainfall guidance out through 7 PM CT tomorrow evening. We think that this model does the best job depicting where we think the heaviest rains are going to fall this evening and overnight. For this area, we are going with a base of 0.5 to 1.0 inches with amounts locally higher. We do think there is the potential for some impressive totals, especially in SD as this cluster looks to become more organized the further S it works. Besides the cluster, we are looking at light totals in the rest of the Dakotas for tonight and tomorrow. As mentioned, most of the scattered activity looks to stay in ND so there should not be much widespread activity tomorrow:
As always, reach out to us at [email protected] with any questions! Have a great rest of your Tuesday!