Good evening everyone! Storm activity is beginning to ramp up across portions of the region, in particular eastern NE and central KS, as of 4:15pm CDT. Pulse-type storms have popped up in southeast MO due to daytime instability, but a gradual weakening trend is expected with those storms as sunset approaches. A few storms have also developed across northwest NE.
The storms across eastern NE are expected to push eastward through the remainder of the evening with a slight uptick in coverage possible as it tracks further into southeast NE and eventually along the MO/IA border. This cluster may become severe at times during the evening and overnight hours with isolated damaging winds and hail possible. A broken line of storms are expected to fire mostly to the east of our region with development along its southwestern fringes possibly extending as far west as eastern/southeastern MO at times this evening and overnight. Heading west into the Western Plains, another round of storms are expected to ignite over the next couple of hours and push east as well into central KS/NE during the early overnight. These storms also pose a severe weather threat with the same risks as mentioned above. During the nighttime hours, I expect these storms to weaken, push east, and become more of a heavy rain threat across portions of far northern KS, southeast NE, southern IA, and northern MO. Some isolated showers/storms will likely hang back across western KS into the morning hours. HRRR simulated radar through 7am CDT Tuesday is shown below.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued across portions of far western NE where storms have begun to develop. This watch is in effect until 9pm MDT with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.
Leftover showers/storms will continue their progression eastward during the morning hours Tuesday across southern IA and northern MO with a few stragglers likely hanging back across portions of IA during the afternoon hours. By early afternoon, the frontal boundary sparking these areas of showers/storms will be draped across central/southern MO into southeastern KS. These areas will have storm coverage increase during the afternoon with some storms dumping locally heavy rainfall. Areas of showers and storms in southern MO will push southward out of the state by late evening Tuesday/early Wednesday morning. Isolated storms are possible again in western KS Tuesday evening.
Total rainfall remains a tricky part of this forecast, but here is our latest idea through 1am CDT Wednesday morning. A few pockets of up to 1″ of rain are possible in northern IA Tuesday afternoon as well as western KS this evening into tonight.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a great evening!