Good Monday afternoon!
A check on radar shows that we are looking at some very scattered activity across the states with a stronger cell in SW SD:
A look at simulated radar from 7 PM CT tonight until 7 AM CT tomorrow. We think that we can see some scattered showers and storms in the SW part of SD as well as W portions of NE:
Below is the area where we think we can see the best shot at showers and storms lingering this evening and into the overnight hours.We do think that a few of these storms can be strong to severe with the two main risks for severe weather being damaging wind gusts and larger hail. There is the possibility that we can see some stronger cells outside of the circled area, but inside that area is where the best potential lies:
Tomorrows highs look to generally be in the low to mid 80s (lighter reds and oranges) in E SD/NE and upper 80s/low 90s (darker reds/browns) in W SD/NE:
Tomorrow we think there can be more activity in the PM/evening hours similar to today, however we think this threat can be a little more focused toward the central part of the states. Below is simulated radar from 4 PM CT Tue afternoon until 10 PM CT Tue evening. We do want to mention that while data generally agrees on precipitation this evening, there is some uncertainty with tomorrow as some data wants to put the heavier precip further W. Our current thought favors the Central portions of SD/NE based on higher dew points for more moisture and more instability in Central SD/NE compared to further W:
A look at rainfall guidance out through 7 PM CT tomorrow evening. The circled area in black is where we think we see the best opportunities for precip this evening/overnight hours. We think where we do see the scattered activity, a general 0.25 to 0.5 inches can fall with amounts higher where stronger cells set up. This will not be a widespread, equal opportunity rain where everyone sees precip. The area circled in red is where we think the best chances for precip comes tomorrow afternoon and evening. As mentioned with this area, confidence is slightly lower than normal regarding coverage and intensity, but we think this is where the best shot for 0.25 to 0.75 inches of precip lies:
As always, contact us at [email protected] if you have any questions! Enjoy the rest of your Monday!