Good Monday afternoon!
A quick look at radar shows that we have some very isolated storms in the South Central part of MO, and some rain trying to creep into the NW sections of the state:
We think radar could become a little more busy in the overnight hours as we are watching a front move over the state from N to S. Current thought is that the best chance for rainfall comes in the northern third of the state as right now data is suggesting our front will really lose its precip as it goes further S due a to lack of forcing. We also think that N MO would be the area with the highest chances for severe weather. Below is simulated radar from 1 AM CT Tuesday morning until 7 AM CT Tue:
Area that we think holds the best potential for severe weather in the overnight/early morning hours. This is not to say we cannot see some strong to severe storms outside of this area, but this is where the best chances for severe weather lies. The two highest severe weather threats we are keeping an eye on are damaging wind gusts and hail:
Tomorrow’s highs look to be in the upper 80s/low 90s (darker reds/browns) across the state with the best shot at hitting the mid 90s (lighter browns) coming in the S quarter of the state:
Tomorrow in the afternoon and evening we think that there can be some scattered shower and storm activity mainly focused on the Central and Southern portions of the state.
A look at rainfall guidance out through 7 PM CT Tuesday evening. We think this model may be a touch overdone in terms of the widespread precip coverage over the next 24 to 30 hours, but we do agree with the overall ideas here. We agree with the NE parts of MO to have the best potential to see rainfall in the 0.25 to 0.75 inch range, and for the rest of the state to see mainly scattered activity for the rest of this evening and throughout the day tomorrow. Where we see those scattered showers and storms, we are thinking totals could fall in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range with locally heavier amounts where those stronger storms set themselves up:
As always, contact us at [email protected] if you have any questions! Enjoy the rest of your evening!