Good Monday afternoon!
Current radar shows that we area seeing a line of storms just North of Minneapolis starting to fire along our front that will be moving S during the evening. Elsewhere we see some storms near the IA/MN border:
We think this evening could contain some severe weather with the main focus in the S part of the state. Right now this is the area we are favoring for the highest severe weather potential. This is not to say that we cannot see any strong or severe cells outside of the circled area, but this is certainly where the best potential lies. Our two main threats for severe weather with these cells are damaging wind gusts and hail. An isolated tornado cannot be totally ruled out, however this is not likely:
Below is simulated radar from 4 PM CT until 1 AM CT. As mentioned, the strongest and best chance for precip in the state comes in the S/SE part of MN:
Tomrrow’s highs look to be in the low to mid 80s across the state as our front is ushering out some of the warmer air that was in S MN today:
Tomorrow looks to be an overall dry day across the state as our precip in S MN right now will work its way S into IA and WI. We may see some spotty leftover showers and storms tomorrow in S MN, but chances for this are not extremely high and this should not be anything like what we see tonight. The next real chance for precip comes tomorrow later in the afternoon/evening and should be mainly focused in the N half of the state. Some model data is suggesting that this line will work its way N to S tomorrow night with some stronger storms so we will need to find tune those details with tomorrow’s update. Below is simulated radar from 1 PM CT tomorrow until midnight CT Wednesday:
A look at rainfall guidance out through 7 PM tomorrow evening. The focus on rainfall over the next 24-30 hours will be in the S/SE part of MN. We think that precip totals are going to vary as some of these cells certainly have the potential to drop a few inches. Overall we are going to go with 0.5 to 1 inches where we see precip in the image below with the potential to see some locally higher amounts in areas that hit by a few rounds of storms tonight. As mentioned, we will have to keep an eye on the precip in N MN tomorrow later in the afternoon/ evening as this data is not showing the precip really starting to form until slightly later in the evening tomorrow:
As always, please feel free to contact us at [email protected] for any questions you have! Enjoy the rest of your day!