Good Sunday Morning!
A current look at radar shows we are looking at a rather big storm cluster in NW SD trying to work its way E as it crossed the SD/MT border:
The past 24 hours rainfall accumulation. We have seen almost all of our precip in the past 24 hours come in the western half of the state:
Today we think that we could be looking at somewhat of an active day precipitation wise. We are watching an area of upper level energy (darker shades of red) work from W to E across the state. Right now the thinking is that the majority of precip comes in the central and southern portions of the state as this is where we see the strongest levels of energy. We do want to mention there is some risk with this forecast as data has not been performing exceptionally well in the Northern Plains. Some of our more accurate and reliable models have been differing from each other quite a bit so this is a slightly lower confidence forecast.The loop is from 10 AM CT until 7 PM CT today:
A simulated radar loop from 1 PM CT today until 1 AM CT tomorrow morning reflects that thought as we think there is the possibility of some strong to severe weather across the state. Current thinking is that the area with the best shot at severe weather is the South Central / South Western parts of the state :
Area we are currently favoring for the highest chances of severe weather today and overnight. Right now our two highest threats of severe weather are damaging winds and large hail. While this circle is somewhat larger, we do think that between this afternoon and the overnight hours, a good area of SD is at play for strong to severe storms. This is not to say that we can’t see severe weather outside of this area, but this is where we think the best potential currently lies:
Highs today look to be in the upper 80s and low 90s across SD. The one thing that can really limit our highs is precipitation, so a storm or two overhead during the peak afternoon hours can really put a cap on highs today:
Tonight is looking like we can continue to see scattered storms across the area with some of them still holding the potential to be strong to severe. Below is simulated radar loop from Midnight tonight until 7 AM CT Monday morning:
Highs tomorrow look to be slightly cooler, we are favoring low 80s for much of the Dakotas with some spots touching the mid 80s:
Tomorrow looks to be an overall drier day as we slowly work precipitation out of the S parts of the state. A snapshot at 6 PM tomorrow shows that we should only be looking at some very isolated pop ups tomorrow, but current thought is that most of the state is dry in the afternoon hours:
A look at rainfall guidance out through 7 PM CT Monday. One area we want to keep an eye on is the West/ Central part of the state. We think that while this model does not have much precipitation, there is the potential to see higher amounts here given the severe potential mentioned. We also think the SE corner of the state could end up with more precip than what is being suggested here. We do want to re-iterate that this is a slightly lower confidence forecast compared to normal due to some model inconsistency:
As always, please reach out to us at [email protected] if you have any questions! Have a great rest of your Sunday!