Good afternoon everyone! This post will discuss new details in regards to this afternoon/evening’s severe weather threat. Convection is still ongoing across portions of central IA with slightly heavier rainfall occurring in eastern MN as of 12:35pm CDT. A vast majority of NE and all of SD has since cleared out from this band of rain. The batch of storms from this morning in north-central ND has since crossed the border into northwest MN and this thin line of storms will likely be the biggest playmaker when it comes to our severe weather threat.
The severe weather threat has been toned down to a marginal risk across the eastern Dakotas and western MN as lift appears weaker than originally thought. Lapse rates (change in temperature with altitude) and instability remain conducive for a severe weather threat but without ample lift storm coverage will remain modest at best. Even so, isolated showers and storms are still expected to develop in those areas with isolated large hail and damaging winds possibly accompanying any storms that develop here. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Sunday: Convection in eastern MN and portions of IA will continue their push east with isolated showers/storms possible in central/eastern IA through the evening hours. Scattered development is expected to build off the southern-end of the thin line of storms in far northern MN after 2-3pm CDT. As stated before, additional isolated storms are likely to fire across portions of southwest MN and eastern SD this evening with ongoing isolate to widely scattered shower/storm activity possible through the nighttime hours in these areas. Isolate scattered storms will also build into portions of NE (mainly northern areas) late this evening into the overnight with northwest IA having slight storm chances as well. Essentially areas within the green shading in the graphic above have at least a slight chance of storms through the overnight hours with some storms possibly becoming strong with gusty winds and small hail.
Rainfall will remain isolated through 7am CDT Sunday with the best chance of rain through the next few hours in southeast/eastern MN where 0.1-0.5″ of rain is expected. Another area with a decent shot of rain exists in far northern MN where locally 1″+ of rain is possible with the storms there this afternoon into the evening. Any other areas that receive isolated storms through this timespan can receive a quick 0.5-1″ of rain locally, but most areas will stay dry. Additional showers/storms are expected tomorrow across portions of SD, NE, IA, and southern MN. A few of those storms may also become severe with gusty winds and small hail. Additional details on those shower/storm chances can be found in your area’s previous update. If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a great rest of your day!