Good Saturday morning everyone! A swath of broken showers with embedded heavier rain is lifting northeastward in western IA/far eastern NE southward into portions of central KS as of 8:20am CDT. These are the remnants of last night’s storms that affected the Western Plains.
By the time we arrive towards the noon hour CDT, this band of rain likely won’t have made much progression east, though, it likely will have weakened in intensity. Through the afternoon hours I expect the area of showers to continue on a weakening trend with eastern KS, northwest MO, and eastern IA likely seeing a few isolated areas of showers/storms remaining. A few spotty showers will be all that remain of the morning convection in western/northern MO into eastern IA this evening. Looking towards the Western Plains, another piece of upper-level energy will swing eastward into the region, increasing shower/storm chances once again late this afternoon/evening in those areas. A few isolated storms may pop in NE and possibly as far east as northwest IA this evening/tonight. Shown below is HRRR simulated radar through 10pm CDT this evening.
Here is today’s Severe Storm Outlook. Overall not looking that impressive in regards to severe weather but with the isolated storms this evening tonight in NE/northwest IA there could be some gusty winds and small hail. Storm chances decrease as you head southward.
Simulated radar from 10pm CDT tonight through 7am CDT Monday: Isolated areas of showers/storms persist across the northern portions of the area before activity ramps up Sunday morning with more energy lifting into NE. Showers and storms are expected across portions of NE through the morning Sunday, pushing eastward into northwest IA after 10am CDT Sunday. Through the rest of the day Sunday, areas of showers and storms are a good bet in NE and western/northern IA (possibly even far northern KS). Overnight Sunday into Monday, storm coverage is expected to dwindle in NE with showers/storms continuing in the northern 2/3rds of IA. Isolated coverage likely extends southwestward into far northwest MO and KS Monday morning.
Through 7am CDT Sunday morning, widespread rains are unlikely with only morning convection persisting in the circled region and isolated to widely scattered storm chances in NE this evening. A few localized locations in western IA may pick up 0.5″ of rain through early afternoon and if caught under a storm this evening in NE, a half of inch of rain likely falls (maybe up to an inch).
A frontal boundary in which tomorrow’s convection is associated with will slowly drift southward Sunday through Tuesday. Widespread rains with this frontal boundary are not likely across KS and MO, but a slight uptick in rainfall is possible in far southern MO Tuesday into early Wednesday. Please take note that a large portion of the rains in northeast NE fell earlier this morning. Over 1″ of rain is expected across portions of northern IA with the incoming showers/storms Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Additional storms are likely Wednesday afternoon and evening in the Western Plains. After Wednesday, most of the area stays dry with only isolated storm chances through next weekend. European Model 7-day rainfall is shown below.
High temperatures over the next four days: It will be a warm one out there across a majority of the area today with many locations rising into the 90s for highs. A cold front will slowly drift southward late weekend into early work week, dropping temperatures behind it. To the south of this boundary, highs in the 90s are expected.
Low temperatures over the next four days: Overnight lows will rise heading into Monday morning with many locations across KS and MO only dipping into the low-mid 70s. Lows will fall into the 60s Tuesday and especially Wednesday morning.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity levels will be elevated across portions of the area today lasting through Tuesday. Drier air will drift into the Western Plains late Monday into Tuesday.
Wind forecast over the next four days: Winds will be at their strongest today with gusts up to 30mph at times across IA into portions of eastern NE and central KS. Winds will weaken through the period.
Here’s a look at the European Model 10-day temperature, rain, and wind charts for Des Moines, Lincoln, Wichita, and Springfield.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a great weekend!