Hoping you all have a great weekend, and have a blessed week ahead! -Kirk
Final September forecast outlooks:
Temperatures:
- We have trended much cooler than our original thoughts for the Ag Belt due in part to the very cool start of the month. This is a result of a few drivers including the start of the month featuring a cooler signal from the –AAM/MJO Phase 2.
- For the second week of September, we are likely feeling the influences of one or potentially two typhoons that are aiding in a +PNA and cooler air in the Central US. Given the start of the month and cooler influences from these typhoons, we had to trend cooler in the Central US.
- We do think that the West Coast and East Coast can stay warmer leading to CDDs averaging closer to normal to above normal.
- The risk we run is that if the typhoon influence weakens for the second half of the month, the pattern could get warm very fast especially in the Eastern Ag Belt (similar to our original forecast).
Precipitation:
- Given the change we had to make in temperatures due the cooler start to the month, we’ve had to adjust our rainfall forecast.
- Cooler air will likely suppress moisture and keep parts of the Western and Central Plains drier than normal.
- We continue to watch the tropics with several disturbances ongoing in the Atlantic. A few may develop into tropical systems over the next couple of weeks. With the trough in the Central US, it may make it difficult to get storms into W. Gulf of Mexico. That said, the risk remains on the table, but there is some uncertainty about the exact tropical influences. If we can get storms up the east coast of GOM, a drier risk is possible to our forecast.
- The trough in the Central US will favor more moisture risks in the OH/MO/TN Valley regions. If a ridge builds more to end the month related to the –AAM/MJO, we could see an uptick in moisture in the N. Plains/Midwest and some drier risks to close in the Ohio Valley.