Good Friday afternoon!
Here is a look at current radar. We are seeing some scattered activity across the state, most of which is focused in SE/ S Central SD:
As we work later into the afternoon and evening, we think that we will continue to see these hit and miss pockets of precip. This hit and miss precip pattern can be seen by taking a look at our modeled upper level energy from 4 PM CT today until 4 PM CT tomorrow. Our brighter red colors are showing the “hit and miss” nature of those areas of precip, especially as shown in the first couple images of the loop. The pockets of energy are more sporadic and not as organized:
Below is the look at simulated radar form 7 PM CT this evening until 5 AM CT tomorrow morning. This model may be a touch underdone on coverage for this evening based on how it is performing right now vs. radar, but we do like the progression and gradual intensity of the rain as we work into the early AM hours tomorrow morning:
Working into tomorrow, we are expecting the heaviest of rains to come in the AM/ early PM hours of the day in E SD. This is the same loop as above, but here we want to focus more on the later portion of the loop. As the loop goes on, we can see our upper level energy become stronger and more organized over E SD. This is the area we are watching for the highest totals over the next 24 hours:
Simulated radar from 7 AM CT tomorrow morning until 4 PM CT tomorrow evening. We can see that late morning, most notably in SE SD, we see a more organized area of precip look to form and produce some decent totals. The area of precip as a whole should be out of the state by the early PM hours and pushing off into MN:
Highs tomorrow look to be in the upper 60s to low 70s for much of the state. The further west you go, the more likely you are to see mid 70s as we will not have precip around to keep temps cooler:
A look at modeled precipitation guidance out through 7 PM CT Sat evening. Overall we favor this model as it aligns pretty good with our thinking about precip amounts. The area in black looks to be pretty isolated/ hit and miss showers and storms for the rest fo the evening and early overnight hours. As you go further E in the state, the chances of seeing higher amounts of precip go up as we think the area circled in red could see a base of 0.5 to 1.0 inches with some amounts locally 1.5+”. We do think that flash flooding is possible given that most of the rain looks to be coming in the AM/ early PM hours:
Please reach out to [email protected] with any questions you have! Enjoy the rest of your Friday!