Today’s Video:
Good Thursday morning everyone! A calm and quiet start to the day with just a few clouds in the area. Generally it will be a nice day across the area, with a few scattered showers and storms starting to develop especially in the Eastern Dakotas as we work into the evening hours:
A wave of energy will work into Minnesota overnight and we could see a 50-60% coverage of showers and storms develop in the southern 2/3rds of Minnesota with more isolated showers in Northern Minnesota. In the Western Dakotas we likely see showers break out overnight and push to the east into tomorrow morning with a few strong storms possible especially in Central South Dakota tomorrow morning:
As we work into tomorrow and the low-level jet weakens, showers and storms start to weaken with more scattered activity continuing in E. ND and N. MN.
Clearing out in South Dakota and S. MN aided by heating, a low-level jet and a front will allow for a severe weather threat to develop. Cannot rule out a few isolated tornadoes, however, the main threat looks to be a damaging wind and large hail threat. Initially storms that develop specifically have a large hail threat, but as they congeal into a line we likely see a damaging wind threat late tomorrow evening into tomorrow night:
Here’s a look at total rainfall with this system. Note, data tries to kill off the storms before they reach S. MN and N. IA, but we lean towards a weakening line that does impact those areas:
A few lingering showers are possible in SE SD and S. MN Saturday morning, but we could even clear out on Saturday before the next wave starts to work in into Sunday and clip southern areas. A very active pattern sets up with continuous rain and storm risks especially in E. SD and the southern half of Minnesota early next week. Here’s a look at the simulated radar into Wednesday evening:
Here’s a look at 7-day rainfall from the European indicating the very heavy rain likely and flooding risk into next week:
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next 4 days:
Here’s a look at dew point the next 4 days:
Here’s a look at winds the next 4 days:
Here’s a look at city charts for Bismarck, Pierre, Sioux Falls, and Minneapolis:
If you have any questions, do not hesitate to reach out via [email protected]! Have a great day!