Good evening everyone! We are officially working at the cluster of showers and storms that has plagued portions of central and eastern KS today. This won’t be the end of the storm threat across the area as more disturbances will slide into the region over the coming days. Here’s a brief summary of the setup for shower and storm chances this evening into tonight: Moisture levels, instability and wind shear will be quite high for this time of year, resulting in any storms that develop possibly becoming strong to severe. This threat will be greatest across far eastern NE and northeastern KS tonight, though it shouldn’t be a substantial threat. Gusty winds and hail may accompany some of these storms.
Simulated radar through 7am CDT Friday: Areas of scattered showers and storms work across the western portions of KS and NE after 6pm CDT this evening. This activity will spread into the central KS/NE overnight but shower and storm chances likely dwindle in coverage. Isolated strong storms in eastern NE and northeastern KS should lift eastward by 7am CDT.
While likely not overly impressive given the weakened nature of the energy across NE and northern KS Friday morning, I can’t rule out some lingering areas of isolated showers and storms. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. The remnants of this energy will play a part in the severe weather threat heading into the afternoon and evening hours across eastern NE into northeastern KS.
A common theme will be waves of energy lifting into the region over the coming days. Another disturbance will lift into the Western Plains late Friday afternoon and evening, sparking widely scattered storms in the area. Remnants of Friday morning’s convection will be across eastern NE and northeastern KS Friday afternoon and evening. A strong low-level jet allowing increasing speed and directional shear, high instability and moisture, as well as high lapse rates will create an environment conducive for strong to severe thunderstorms in the circled region across eastern NE and northeastern KS. Morning convection may downplay the threat Friday afternoon into the nighttime hours somewhat if more precipitation is observed than originally forecasted. Regardless, all modes of severe weather are possible, including large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. This threat does exist over a majority of the area, but especially in the previously mentioned areas.
Simulated radar from 7am CDT Friday through 7am CDT Saturday: Areas of isolated showers and storms will likely persist through the remainder of the morning Friday, particularly in NE. By around 4pm CDT, scattered strong storms will have ignited across far eastern NE and/or northeastern KS while scattered showers and storms will be working into far western KS and NE. Areas of strong to severe storms will persist in far eastern NE and northeastern KS overnight while storm activity across the far western portions of KS and NE will be progressing eastward into the central portions of the states. Storm chances will remain heading into Saturday morning, with eastern KS and NE having the greatest potential.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Saturday: Best chance for rains will be located across the far eastern portions of NE and KS. Localized 1-2″+ is possible with the strong storms in these areas. Rains will be more scattered elsewhere but I can’t rule out a quick 0.5-1″ of rain where it storms.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!