Good afternoon everyone! We are currently tracking a broken swath of showers and storms stretching from north-central SD into southeast ND eastward through central MN as of 1:15pm CDT. A warm front lifting through the region is the culprit for the activity in these regions with activity likely to continue through the mid-afternoon hours as these showers/storms push eastward.
Stronger storms associated with early afternoon convection are expected to develop after 4pm CDT this afternoon across portions of eastern SD into southwest MN. These areas have the best chance for some severe weather to come out of these storms with the possible threats described below. Elsewhere, widely scattered storms are possible through the evening hours with a more localized strong storm threat in central-eastern ND, western SD, and northern/eastern MN.
Simulated radar through 1am CDT Saturday: Additional storms are expected to fire just south of Fargo, ND after 4pm CDT with clustering of storms possible in far eastern SD/southwestern MN this evening into the early overnight hours. Behind this activity, more energy in western-central ND/northwest SD will likely ignite a line of widely scattered showers/storms mostly after 7pm CDT. As stated before, this will be a more localized strong storm threat due to less instability in these areas and a weaker forcing mechanism.
Simulated radar from 1am CDT Saturday through 1am CDT Sunday: The remnants of this evening/overnight storms in eastern SD and southwestern MN will push eastward during the morning hours Saturday with localized heavy rain possible as heavy downpours may accompany some of these storms in central/southern MN. The widely scattered line of storms in ND/northwest SD will continue east overnight as well, likely weakening during the early morning hours Saturday with a few showers/storms possibly hanging on in eastern ND/northwest MN into the early afternoon hours Saturday. Shower and storm chances will remain isolated across the area Saturday afternoon before more energy works into SD bringing increased showers/storms late Saturday into early Sunday morning.
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 1am CDT Sunday: Many areas not discussed in the graphic below are likely to receive little rain though a few areas in northwest SD into central ND can see ~0.5″ of rain where it storms this evening into tonight.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a great weekend!