Good evening! This post discusses recent model trends for this evening and additional strong to severe storm chances heading into tomorrow. An uptick in storm activity has occurred in the last few hours in west-central MN. This comes in slightly earlier than originally thought. New model guidance is having a poor handle on the recent storm evolution in this area as well as convection flaring in a band across central MN, hence why I’ve decided against showing simulated radar through this evening. The NAM3km simulated radar from the previous update has had the best representation of the cluster of storms along the SD/MN border and I suspect it still has the best idea with how these storms evolve through the evening, though its timing is late by a couple of hours. The cluster of storms which poses an isolated damaging wind threat will push southeastward through the evening before gradually weakening overnight in southern MN. Additional widely scattered storms could spark this evening in far eastern SD within a batch of lighter showers. Storms in far eastern ND into southwest MN still have a possible severe threat attached to them with gusty winds and hail the main concerns. The band of showers/storms in central MN will continue its progression eastward. During the overnight hours, convection will continue in eastern SD and central/southern MN. Northwest of this activity, a line of widely scattered showers/storms will ignite in central ND in the next couple of hours while pushing eastward, weakening during the late evening hours. Shown below is a radar loop as of 5:50pm CDT.
Here’s a glimpse of what to expect for Saturday:
Simulated radar from 1am CDT Saturday through 7am CDT Sunday: Another wave will develop during the late evening/early overnight in southwest ND/northwest SD and will follow along the ND/SD border through the night into early morning hours Saturday. Saturday morning convection will continue in far eastern SD and central/southern MN while lifting eastward with additional flare-ups in embedded storms in southern MN during the late morning into early afternoon hours. Storms following along the ND/SD border will lift northeastward into eastern ND Saturday morning and northern MN during the early afternoon hours. Another wave of storms will fire behind this area of storms in eastern ND Saturday afternoon pushing into northwest MN during the evening hours. Some of these storms in eastern ND/northwest MN tomorrow afternoon and evening may become severe with damaging winds and large hail possible. That wave will weaken overnight in northern MN with an additional wave lifting northeastward into SD late Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Sunday: While some of the amounts in northeast SD/southwest MN are likely overdone, a quick 1-2″ of rain is possible ahead of the approaching cluster of storms in west-central MN through the early nighttime hours. Morning convection in southern/central MN will bring locally 1″ of rain through early Saturday night. Due to the scattered nature of the storms in northwest MN, central/eastern ND, and northwest SD, some of these areas will receive little rain while others may see localized 0.5-1″ of rain.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out and have a good night!