Good afternoon everyone! A complex of showers and stronger storms continues to lift northeastward across far eastern SD and portions of western MN as of 3:50pm CDT. Another cluster of storms is working its way across east-central MN and will exit the state in the next hour or so. Lighter rains can be found scattered across ND.
The severe weather threat is beginning to ramp up across southern MN where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued in accordance with the Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service offices in the area. The cluster of showers and storms working through western MN is expected to strengthen across southern MN as the atmosphere that lies ahead of this convection is prime for the development of strong to severe storms. Shown below are the counties/cities under this watch and the listed hazards.
Here is the Severe Storm Outlook for this evening across the Northern Plains. A brief synopsis is below.
The complex of storms across southern MN will lift eastward through the evening hours, bringing with it the threat for all modes of severe weather as it pushes through the area. The greatest threat for severe weather will exist through 11pm CDT before the possible MCS lifts into northeastern IA and western/central WI. Some back-building of showers and storms behind this feature is possible overnight across far southeastern MN. Behind the frontal boundary across western SD, scattered strong storms are expected to fire over the next couple of hours and also progress eastward into central and eastern SD. The severe weather threat with these storms will likely diminish overnight. Further north into ND, scattered light to moderate rains will persist through the evening, lifting north and eastward into southern Canada and northwestern MN overnight. A few of the scattered storms in SD may work their way north enough to impact the farthest southern portions of ND late this evening into tonight. Simulated radar through 7am CDT Tuesday:
We can continue to see areas of isolated to scattered showers and storms across the region through tomorrow morning, especially across southern MN. More scattered storms are expected to fire along the thermal gradient in place across southeastern MN tomorrow afternoon. A weak disturbance will also progress into northwestern/northern ND late Tuesday afternoon and evening, providing isolated storm chances to these areas. Otherwise, a majority will remain dry after morning activity in the region. Simulated radar from 7am-10pm CDT Tuesday:
As stated in this morning’s update, a strong low-level jet in place will aid in heavy rainfall across portions of central and southern MN. While rainfall will likely not be uniform in these areas, localized pockets of 1-2″+ will be likely where the heaviest storms track through 7am CDT Tuesday. A general 0.1-0.5″ of rain is expected across western and central ND with more scattered rains across SD, though a few localized spots may pick up 1″+ of rain.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great evening!