Good evening everyone! Scattered showers and strong storms are lifting northeastward across northern IA with a few small patches of convection developing further south into central IA as of 4:50pm CDT. Behind the frontal boundary in western NE, lighter showers are currently working across the area.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued across portions of northern IA in accordance with the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and the National Weather Service offices in the impacted area. This watch is in effect until 10pm CDT. The main hazards are listed below.
The SPC is also look at portions of southwestern SD into north-central NE for the possibility of another watch being issued this evening. While they only give this area a 40% chance of a watch being issued at this time, isolated large hail may accompany these storms as they lift northeastward through the evening.
Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect going forward through the evening and early overnight hours:
The southern fringes of a complex of showers and strong storms will continue to push eastward across northern IA through the evening hours. Most of this activity should exit northeastern IA by 11pm but additional back-building is possible along its western extent into the overnight hours across the far northeastern portions of the state. Isolated strong to severe storms will lift out of western NE this evening before weakening overnight across northeastern NE. A couple areas of isolated showers and storms may develop in places impacted by this evening’s storms in northeastern NE and northwestern IA overnight into Tuesday morning. Simulated radar through 7am CDT Tuesday: Locations across KS and MO will largely stay dry through this timespan.
Looking ahead to Tuesday, the frontal boundary sparking the strong storms across our far northern areas this evening will slide southward, likely developing a line of scattered showers and stronger storms across our eastern areas. Here’s a brief synopsis of what to expect heading into tomorrow:
As discussed in the previous graphic, there will be the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms as well as heavy rain along the frontal boundary. The main timing for this line of storms that develops across central/eastern IA, northwestern/northern MO, and eastern KS is looking to be between 4pm to 12am CDT. Isolated showers and storms may be around during the morning and early afternoon hours across portions of eastern NE into IA before this complex of storms fires. Storms will drop southeastward into the rest of eastern IA, northern MO, and eastern KS through the rest of Tuesday evening and night, gradually weakening in intensity during the overnight. Some additional flare-ups in storms may lag behind this line in parts of MO and eastern KS overnight into Wednesday morning. Simulated radar from 7am CDT Tuesday through 7am CDT Wednesday:
Due to the model likely overdoing precipitation in northern IA this evening and tonight, I opted out of showing a rainfall map through tomorrow morning. However, localized 1-2″+ cannot be ruled out across the northern two rows of counties in IA as this evening’s complex of storms propagates through. Isolated pockets of 0.25-1″ of rain are possible where it storms in NE this evening and tonight. Here are the expected rainfall amounts from 7am CDT Tuesday through 7am CDT Wednesday: Rainfall likely will be heavy at times along a line of storms that pushes through the Eastern Plains late tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a good evening!