Good Saturday morning everyone! Most in the region are dry this morning with the exception being portions of southern and eastern ND where light showers are currently pushing through. This lack of activity in the region will likely change heading into the afternoon and evening as widely scattered development is likely along a frontal boundary draped from northwest MN southwestward into SD. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is highlighting northern MN into eastern ND/far northeastern SD for the possibility of some of these storms becoming strong to perhaps severe with gusty winds and hail being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
The showers in ND will progress northeastward through the remainder of the morning into the afternoon hours. Scattered development is expected after 6pm CDT this evening across eastern ND and northwestern MN. Models differ on the evolution of showers and storms in SD, but given a frontal boundary in place across the area today, I expect at least isolated storms chances to develop in western SD after 4pm CDT this afternoon, pushing eastward across the state through the evening and early overnight hours. Simulated radar through 12am CDT Sunday:
Any coverage in storms across the eastern Dakotas and northern/western MN during the overnight hours will gradually lift eastward through the morning across MN, exiting the state after 12pm CDT Sunday. Some upper-level energy from NE and IA may work its way into far southern MN/southeastern SD during the late morning to early afternoon hours. Very isolated showers are likely to persist elsewhere during this timeframe. Simulated radar from 12a-1p CDT Sunday:
A new disturbance with plenty of robust upper-level energy will lift eastward out of the Rockies into the Dakotas late Sunday afternoon and evening. This will provide a spark for scattered strong storms (possibly a broken line) to develop in the central Dakotas before trekking eastward through the eastern Dakotas into northern MN overnight. Shown below is a synopsis of what to expect:
Scattered storms are possible across northwest ND during the afternoon hours Sunday that could put down some decent rain before scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to ignite in the central Dakotas, mainly after 6pm CDT. A couple strong storms can’t be ruled out in eastern MN during the late afternoon and evening hours Sunday from that pulse of energy working northeastward out of IA. It is important to note that greater forcing is expected along the ND/SD border northward into ND. With this in mind, storms will likely be less in coverage across southern SD. This activity will lift eastward during the evening across the eastern Dakotas and then MN overnight.
Total rainfall through 7am CDT Monday: Where it rains a quick 0.25-1″ of rain with locally 1-2″ can be expected, mainly in eastern ND into northern MN. Storm coverage will be less in SD and southern MN during this period.
Another disturbance behind this weekend’s activity will likely impact the Northern Plains Monday afternoon through Tuesday before the front clears completely Wednesday, bringing drier weather Wednesday and Thursday. Here’s a look at the European Model, which is a decent blend between all the other numerical models:
Here’s a look at temperatures over the next four days: High temperatures in the 80s to low 90s can be expected south of the frontal boundary in SD and southern MN through the weekend with a drop in highs expected Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will also fall during this period.
Here’s a look at dew points over the next four days: The frontal boundary draped across the region will drop humidity levels across the northern and western portions of the region slowly through this period.
Here’s a look at winds over the next four days:
Here’s a look at the city charts over the next 10 days for Minneapolis, Fargo, Bismarck and Sioux Falls:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great weekend!