Good Saturday afternoon!
We are watching for some severe weather in the overnight hours tonight that was mentioned in the AM update. Current radar shows that we are overall dry minus a few scattered showers and storms in the N half of the state:
As we work later into the evening and the overnight hours, we are watching for some stronger storms to develop that could bring some severe weather to KS. These storms look to be isolated at first before becoming more of a cluster and working E/SE. Below are some of the “ingredients” we look at when assessing the severe potential. We see high amounts of shear present, an ample amount of energy, a lot of spin in the atmposphere, and a parameter that shows the potential for tornados. High values for each are present in the area circled in black so there is certainly a possibility of seeing some severe storms that could do damage:
Below is the area that we are most concerned with severe weather. While there can certainly be strong to severe storms outside of this area, the area in red is the area that we feel has the best shot at seeing severe weather. All forms of severe weather are possible here- large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornado’s, lightning, and flash flooding where the heaviest cells set up:
Below is simulated radar from 8 PM CT this evening until 1 PM CT tomorrow afternoon. We think that as we go into the day tomorrow, the precip will continue to push further east into the state and lose some of its potency. Note how these cells look to start out more isolated and then form more into a cluster.Much of the severe weather looks to happen overnight tonight so have a way to receive watch/warning notifications!:
A look at precip guidance out through 7 PM CT tomorrow evening. We think that these stronger storms will also bring heavier rainfall amounts. Most of the counties inside of the black circle are under flash flood watches, and that is the area that we think sees the highest of the precip totals. There can be a wide swath of 1 to 2+ inches as a base with some localized areas seeing 3+ inches of rain by lunchtime tomorrow.
Please reach out to [email protected] with any questions you have! Have a good rest of your Saturday!