Good Friday evening!
A current check on radar shows that we are looking at some stronger storms in the Central part of the state with a few very scattered showers and storms near the eastern and western borders of KS:
As the night goes on, we think these storms will lose some of their steam and gradually fade away. There can be some leftover, lingering activity in Central/ E KS, but nothing impressive. Below is simulated upper level energy from 7 PM CT this evening until 7 PM CT tomorrow evening. We can see that the highest amounts of upper level energy (darker reds) moves across the state tonight in the overnight hours and work its way W to E through KS during the day Saturday:
Below is our current favored simulated radar from 7 PM CT this evening until 7 AM CT Saturday morning. We think that the storms situated in Central KS will slowly start to diminish as we lose some of our daytime heating that is currently helping fuel these storms. As we work into the overnight hours, we think that we could see some strong to severe storms in W KS as mentioned in the AM update. There is certainly for the potential for some larger hail and an isolated tornado with these storms as they look to have a favorable environment for severe weather:
Highs tomorrow look to be in the low to mid 80s across the state with the best shot at seeing the upper 80s coming in the far SW part of the state (darker reds/ browns):
Simulated radar from 7 AM CT tomorrow morning until 7 PM CT tomorrow evening. As shown in the upper level energy loop, our main round of rain is going to continue to work its way east during the day, providing much of the state with the chance to see some precip. We do think that as this line works further East it will become slightly more scattered and does not look to provide the same potential rainfall wise that we see in western KS due to the slight weakening of upper level energy. We will have to watch for some additional storms late tomorrow afternoon/evening in NW KS as data is hinting at another round of storms forming similar to what we can see in the overnight hours tonight:
A look at precip guidance out through 7 PM CT Saturday evening. If there is one area that could see higher totals than what this model is showing, it would be Central KS. These totals are likely to be higher due to the rain falling right now, and we think that the line can hold together a little better in the Central part of the state than what this modeled precip is showing. Overall we agree with the idea that the heaviest of rains are going to fall in Western KS, and amounts will gradually become lesser as we work E. For the W half of KS, we are still favoring a general 0.5 to 1.5 inches with the potential for some spots to deal with 2.5 + inches and flash flooding becoming an issue:
As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us at [email protected] with any questions! Have a great rest of your Friday!