Kansas video:
Nebraska/Iowa/Missouri video:
Good Wednesday morning everyone! We have a few areas of rain interests mainly across KS as of 9:40am CDT: light, scattered showers across eastern KS, showers and embedded storms in northwest KS/southwest NE and storms firing along the KS/OK border. Unsettled weather will continue through the remainder of the day and into tomorrow as well.
NAM3km simulated radar through 7am CDT Friday morning: Showers will continue to push to the east across eastern KS through the remainder of the morning. Rain will become more expansive across the central portions of the state late morning through the mid afternoon hours. Late evening it’s appearing we will be looking at a lull in activity before more energy lifts into western KS this evening providing shower and storm risks, possibly strong with gusty winds and hail. Central and eastern portions of the KS will work in this activity through the overnight hours with convection continuing across eastern KS Thursday morning. Portions of southern NE will get clipped by these storms as they progress eastward during this timeframe. Western MO/IA (lesser coverage expected in IA) will likely receive these showers and storms beginning Thursday morning, though they will likely weaken as they progress through the state during the afternoon and evening hours. Sunshine and heating will build back into the region behind morning convection Thursday afternoon. This will allow instability to build and provide enough energy for storms to spark across KS and possibly eastern NE Thursday evening into Thursday night. Given the dynamics at play, some of these storms are likely to become strong/severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats across portions of the region (see second graphic below). An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Overnight Thursday into Friday morning, we expect these storms to congeal into a cluster of storms (due to a strengthening low-level jet) that pushes eastward into western MO and central/eastern IA after 11pm CDT Thursday and progresses through those states into the morning hours Friday.
Total rainfall through 1pm CDT Friday: 0.5-1.5″ will be a common theme for many locations across KS and west-central MO with locally higher amounts of up to 2″ possible in the northern/northeastern portions of KS. Due to the scattered nature of these storms some areas will receive little rainfall, especially in southern MO and western IA. While not depicted in this total precipitation graphic, additional rains as this complex pushes east is likely across eastern MO.
The system will lift out of the area Friday with just isolated shower and storm risks remaining through the weekend. An uptick in rainfall across the northeast parts of IA is possible heading into the middle of next week. Here’s a look at total rainfall over the next 7 days from the European Model:
High temperatures over the next four days: Pleasant temperatures are expected across the area today before warmth spreads northward into the Central Plains beginning tomorrow across southern KS and then the rest of the area by Saturday.
Low temperatures over the next four mornings: Overnight lows will range from the upper 40s/low 50s in IA to the mid 60s southwestward into KS tomorrow morning. 70ºF+ lows will become prevalent across a majority of the region come Saturday and Sunday morning.
Dew points over the next four days: Humidity will surge northward across the region starting with KS and southern MO today, NE into tomorrow, then the rest of IA and MO for Friday and Saturday. Dew points will likely exceed 70ºF over many areas Friday and especially Saturday.
Wind forecast over the next four days:
Here’s a look at temperatures and wind speeds for Des Moines, Jefferson City, Lincoln and Salina over the next 10 days:
Weeks 1 and 2 temperatures from normal:
Weeks 1 and 2 precipitation from normal:
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a great day!