Good afternoon everyone! Mostly quiet weather continues through the rest of today with only a few isolated showers/storms along the western ND/SD border and far western SD as of 4:25pm CDT. The area of showers recently found in south-central SD has waned with no further development expected over the next several hours. The HRRR simulated radar is shown below (through 10pm CDT ). The small area of convection along the ND/SD border will also likely diminish in the next couple of hours. Some weak upper-level energy is diving southeastward into northeast ND/northwest MN which will provide isolated shower and storm chances in this region through 10pm CDT tonight.
Simulated radar from 1am CDT through 1pm CDT Friday: More upper-level energy to the west of the incoming energy pushing into northeast ND/northwest MN will spark new storms late tonight (after 3am CDT) just south of Fargo, ND with additional storms firing during the early morning hours across portions of SD and western NE. Storms will push east through the morning with lingering showers/storms continuing from western NE through southern MN.
Areas of morning convection are likely to persist Friday with instability increasing as a result of daytime heating. While the threat is not overly impressive, a few strong storms are likely with afternoon and evening storms expected to fire across portions of the area Friday. High instability along with decent low-level lapse rates (change in temperature with height), vertical wind shear, and low-level moisture will provide opportunities for some of these storms to become strong, though, a building cap may limit the extent of the storms during the evening hours.
Simulated radar from 1pm Friday through 1am Saturday: Storms within the weakened morning convection draped across portions of the area are expected to increase in coverage after 1pm CDT. Locations with the best potential to observe storms, possibly severe, include eastern SD, far southeast ND, southwest MN, and northern NE. These storms will also push east through these areas during the evening hours, gradually weakening late evening into the early overnight. More development is possible along the southern edge of these storms in northeast NE during the overnight hours Friday into Saturday. Another disturbance will lift into the western Dakotas after 8pm CDT Friday bringing with it more opportunities for showers and storms in those areas Friday night.
Here’s a look at total rainfall through 1am CDT Saturday morning: Even with multiple disturbances affecting portions of the region through this time period, many will receive little rain. Localized 1-2″ of rain is possible in a few select locations in north-central NE, eastern SD, and west-central MN where the heaviest rains are likely to set up.
If you have any questions do not hesitate to reach out! Have a good evening!